United States USD

United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

Actual:

-10

Forecast: -11

Previous/Revision:

-17

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index measures the volume of shipments and orders from manufacturing firms in the Fifth Federal Reserve District, which encompasses the District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and parts of West Virginia. This index focuses on the manufacturing sector’s activity and health, assessing key areas like production, employment, and overall economic conditions, with values above zero indicating expansion and below zero indicating contraction.

Frequency

This index is released on a monthly basis, typically published on the last business day of the month, providing preliminary estimates that are subject to revision in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index closely as it serves as a leading indicator of economic activity and can influence market sentiment regarding the U.S. economy. Stronger-than-expected results may bolster the U.S. dollar and support equity markets, while weaker readings can lead to bearish sentiments for currencies and stocks due to concerns over economic slowdown.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey of manufacturing firms within the Fifth Federal Reserve District, which assesses various aspects of their operations, including shipment volumes and inventory levels. The data is collected using diffusion indices that aggregate responses to measure changes, with the overall index being a composite representation of these activities.

Description

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index is considered a coincident indicator that provides insight into current economic conditions, as it reflects real-time data from manufacturers about their orders and shipments. It is particularly useful for detecting short-term trends and shifts within the manufacturing sector, allowing traders to gauge economic health and potential changes in consumer demand.

Additional Notes

This index is often compared with other regional manufacturing indicators, such as those from the New York and Philadelphia Feds, to provide a more comprehensive overview of manufacturing health across the United States. It can serve as a leading measure for broader economic trends, reflecting not only local conditions but also offering insights into national manufacturing performance and supply chain dynamics.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 28, 2025	-10	-11	-17	1
Apr 22, 2025	-17	-2	-7	-15
Mar 25, 2025	-7	2	12	-9
Feb 25, 2025	12	-4	-9	16
Jan 28, 2025	-9	-9	-11
Dec 24, 2024	-11	2	-12	-13
Nov 26, 2024	-12	-5	-8	-7
Oct 22, 2024	-8	-17	-18	9
Sep 24, 2024	-18	-6	-15	-12
Aug 27, 2024	-15	-18	-21	3
Jul 23, 2024	-21	-7	-9	-14
Jun 25, 2024	-9	13	13	-22
May 29, 2024	13	-9	-10	22
Apr 23, 2024	-10	-11	-14	1
Mar 26, 2024	-14	-13	-15	-1
Feb 27, 2024	-15	-9	-15	-6
Jan 23, 2024	-15	-20	-17	5
Dec 27, 2023	-17	-9	-8	-8
Nov 28, 2023	-8	7	9	-15
Oct 24, 2023	9	2	7	7
Sep 26, 2023	7		-5
Aug 22, 2023	-5	-3	-6	-2
Jul 25, 2023	-6	-1	-5	-5
Jun 27, 2023	-5	4	-13	-9
May 23, 2023	-13	-10	-7	-3
Apr 25, 2023	-7		2
Mar 28, 2023	2	-11	-15	13
Feb 28, 2023	-15	-2	-3	-13
Jan 24, 2023	-3	7	5	-10
Dec 28, 2022	5	-5	-8	10
Nov 22, 2022	-8	2	-3	-10
Oct 25, 2022	-3	7	14	-10
Sep 27, 2022	14	-2	-8	16
Aug 23, 2022	-8	1	7	-9
Jul 26, 2022	7	-11	-17	18
Jun 28, 2022	-15	-18	-14	3
May 24, 2022	-14	15	17	-29
Apr 26, 2022	17	5	9	12
Mar 22, 2022	9	-13	-11	22
Feb 22, 2022	-11	15	14	-26
Jan 25, 2022	14	13	12	1
Dec 28, 2021	12	2	0	10
Nov 23, 2021	4	5	1	-1
Oct 26, 2021	1		-1