United States USD

United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

-9

Forecast: -9

Previous/Revision:

-13

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 2

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index measures the manufacturing activity in the Fifth District of the Federal Reserve, which includes Virginia, Maryland, and parts of North Carolina and West Virginia. This index focuses on key areas such as production volume, new orders, shipments, and employment, with key indicators suggesting that a reading above zero typically indicates expansion while a reading below zero indicates contraction.

Frequency

The index is released on a monthly basis, usually around the third Tuesday of each month, and it is considered a preliminary estimate subject to later revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index because it serves as a timely gauge of regional economic health that can impact broader market sentiment. Positive readings can bolster confidence in the U.S. dollar and equities, while negative results may lead to bearish sentiment affecting stocks and currencies.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey of manufacturing firms in the Fifth Federal Reserve District, collecting data primarily from purchasing managers and business leaders. It calculates responses using a diffusion index methodology, where positive responses are weighted against negative ones to generate the overall index value.

Description

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index provides insight into the regional manufacturing sector's current state and future outlook. It is considered a coincident indicator, reflecting immediate economic conditions, and is often correlated with national manufacturing trends, making it a useful tool for economic analysis.

Additional Notes

This indicator often serves as a leading measure of economic activity, reflecting trends that can foreshadow broader changes in the economy. It is commonly compared with other regional manufacturing indicators, such as the New York and Philadelphia Fed indices, to provide a comprehensive view of manufacturing health in the U.S.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 28, 2025	-9	-9	-13
Apr 22, 2025	-13	-6	-4	-7
Mar 25, 2025	-4	8	6	-12
Feb 25, 2025	6	-3	-4	9
Jan 28, 2025	-4	-8	-10	4
Dec 24, 2024	-10	-9	-14	-1
Nov 26, 2024	-14	-10	-14	-4
Oct 22, 2024	-14	-18	-21	4
Sep 24, 2024	-21	-17	-19	-4
Aug 27, 2024	-19	-14	-17	-5
Jul 23, 2024	-17	-7	-10	-10
Jun 25, 2024	-10	2	0	-12
May 29, 2024	0	-2	-7	2
Apr 23, 2024	-7	-7	-11
Mar 26, 2024	-11	-4	-5	-7
Feb 27, 2024	-5	3	-15	-8
Jan 23, 2024	-15	-7	-11	-8
Dec 27, 2023	-11	-6	-5	-5
Nov 28, 2023	-5	1	3	-6
Oct 24, 2023	3	-1	5	4
Sep 26, 2023	5	-6	-7	11
Aug 22, 2023	-7	-7	-9
Jul 25, 2023	-9	-2	-8	-7
Jun 27, 2023	-7	-10	-15	3
May 23, 2023	-15	-8	-10	-7
Apr 25, 2023	-10	4	-5	-14
Mar 28, 2023	-5	-9	-16	4
Feb 28, 2023	-16	-5	-11	-11
Jan 24, 2023	-11	-5	1	-6
Dec 28, 2022	1	-4	-9	5
Nov 22, 2022	-9	5	-10	-14
Oct 25, 2022	-10	2	0	-12
Sep 27, 2022	0	-3	-8	3
Aug 23, 2022	-8	-15	0	7
Jul 26, 2022	0	-6	-9	6
Jun 28, 2022	-11	-12	-9	1
May 24, 2022	-9	12	14	-21
Apr 26, 2022	14	8	13	6
Mar 22, 2022	13	-1	1	14
Feb 22, 2022	1	10	8	-9
Jan 25, 2022	8	17	16	-9
Dec 28, 2021	16	8.6	12	7.4
Nov 23, 2021	11	21	12	-10
Oct 26, 2021	12	-2	-3	14
Sep 28, 2021	-3	11	9	-14
Aug 24, 2021	9	25	27	-16
Jul 27, 2021	27	21	26	6
Jun 22, 2021	22	16	18	6
May 25, 2021	18	15	17	3
Apr 27, 2021	17	19	17	-2
Mar 23, 2021	17	15	14	2
Feb 23, 2021	14	11	14	3
Jan 26, 2021	14	11.5	19	2.5
Dec 22, 2020	19	11	15	8
Nov 24, 2020	15	17	29	-2
Oct 27, 2020	29	15.1	21	13.9
Sep 22, 2020	21	10	18	11
Aug 25, 2020	18	1	10	17
Jul 28, 2020	10	5	0	5
Jun 23, 2020	0	-14	-27	14
May 27, 2020	-27	-38	-53	11
Apr 28, 2020	-53	-42	2	-11
Mar 24, 2020	2	9	-2	-7
Feb 25, 2020	-2	13	20	-15
Jan 28, 2020	20	9	-5	11
Dec 24, 2019	-5	9	-1	-14
Nov 26, 2019	-1	6	8	-7
Oct 22, 2019	8	-14	-9	22
Sep 24, 2019	-9	-11	1	2
Aug 27, 2019	1	-4	-12	5
Jul 23, 2019	-12	5	2	-17
Jun 25, 2019	3	7	5	-4
May 29, 2019	5	6	3	-1
Apr 23, 2019	3	10	10	-7
Mar 26, 2019	10	12	16	-2
Feb 26, 2019	16	8	-2	8
Jan 23, 2019	-2	-6	-8	4
Dec 26, 2018	-8	16	14	-24
Nov 28, 2018	14	16	15	-2
Oct 23, 2018	15	25	29	-10
Sep 25, 2018	29	22	24	7
Aug 28, 2018	24	18	20	6
Jul 24, 2018	20	18	21	2
Jun 26, 2018	20	15	16	5
May 22, 2018	16	9	-3	7
Apr 24, 2018	-3	16	15	-19
Mar 27, 2018	15	23	28	-8
Feb 27, 2018	28	15	14	13
Jan 23, 2018	14	19	20	-5
Dec 26, 2017	20	22	30	-2
Nov 28, 2017	30	14	12	16
Oct 24, 2017	12	17	19	-5
Sep 26, 2017	19	13	14	6
Aug 22, 2017	14	12	14	2
Jul 25, 2017	14	7	11	7
Jun 27, 2017	7	4	1	3
May 23, 2017	1	15	20	-14
Apr 25, 2017	20	16	22	4
Mar 28, 2017	22	16	17	6
Feb 28, 2017	17	10	12	7
Jan 24, 2017	12	7	8	5
Dec 27, 2016	8	5	4	3
Nov 22, 2016	4	1	-4	3
Oct 25, 2016	-4	-5	-8	1
Sep 27, 2016	-8	-2	-11	-6
Aug 23, 2016	-11	6	10	-17
Jul 26, 2016	10	-4	-10	14
Jun 28, 2016	-7	2	-1	-9
May 24, 2016	-1	9	14	-10
Apr 26, 2016	14	11	22	3
Mar 22, 2016	22	-1	-4	23
Feb 23, 2016	-4	2	2	-6
Jan 26, 2016	2	3	6	-1
Dec 22, 2015	6	-1	-3	7
Nov 24, 2015	-3	0	-1	-3
Oct 27, 2015	-1	-0.75	-5	-0.25
Sep 22, 2015	-5	-2	0	-3
Aug 25, 2015	0	10.56	13	-10.56
Jul 28, 2015	13	6	6	7
Jun 23, 2015	6	3	1	3
May 26, 2015	1		-3