United States USD

United States Retail Sales Control Group MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.5%

USD

Actual:

-0.2%

Forecast: 0.3%

Previous/Revision:

0.5%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The United States Retail Sales Control Group MoM measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding volatile sectors such as automobiles, building materials, and gas stations. It primarily focuses on consumer spending trends, indicating overall economic health and demand, and key indicators include the percentage change in sales from the previous month.

Frequency

This report is released monthly and typically published around the mid of each month, representing preliminary estimates that may be revised in later reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Retail Sales Control Group MoM due to its significant implications for consumer spending and overall economic activity, which can influence stock markets and currency values. A stronger-than-expected reading may bolster confidence, leading to bullish trends in equities and the dollar, while weaker results could signal economic slowdown, triggering bearish sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The Retail Sales Control Group is derived from a robust survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, which collects data from a diverse sample of retail establishments. The methodology includes a combination of samples across various retail sectors and applies a weighting system to reflect their economic significance accurately.

Description

Preliminary reports serve as early estimates of retail sales based on collected data, while final figures, released later, offer a more accurate reflection after adjustments. Month-over-Month (MoM) reporting is employed here to capture short-term fluctuations in consumer behavior, allowing traders to identify immediate trends and sentiment in retail activity.

Additional Notes

The Retail Sales Control Group acts as a coincident indicator because it reflects current economic activity linked to consumer spending. It is often compared to overall retail sales figures and can provide insights into broader economic trends and consumer confidence relative to other economic indicators.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. If the results come in lower than anticipated, it signals potential economic weakness, which could lead to a dovish tone regarding future monetary policy, typically bad for the dollar but good for stocks due to lower borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	-0.2%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.5%
Apr 16, 2025	0.4%	0.6%	1.3%	-0.2%
Mar 17, 2025	1%	0.2%	-1%	0.8%
Feb 14, 2025	-0.8%	0.3%	0.8%	-1.1%