United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Retail Price Index YoY

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-0.2%
Actual:
2.4%
Forecast: 2.6%
Previous/Revision:
2.5%
Period: Mar
What Does It Measure?
The Retail Price Index (RPI) measures the change in the cost of a basket of retail goods and services purchased by households in the United Kingdom, explicitly assessing inflation as experienced by consumers. It focuses on the primary areas of consumer spending, including housing, food, and transportation, using key indicators such as the overall percentage change in prices compared to a previous period.
Frequency
The RPI is released monthly, with the figures typically published on the last working day of the month for the previous month’s data.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders focus on the RPI as it provides critical insights into inflation trends, which can influence monetary policy and subsequently affect financial markets, including currencies and stocks. A higher-than-expected RPI indicates rising inflation, often leading to bullish movements for bond yields and bearish sentiment for equities, while lower readings can have the opposite effect.
What Is It Derived From?
The RPI is derived from a comprehensive survey that collects price data from various retail outlets, alongside estimates of household consumption patterns. The index utilizes a weighted basket of goods and services, where prices change regularly, reflecting the purchasing habits of an average UK household.
Description
Preliminary RPI reports provide early insights into inflation levels based on incomplete data and may be subject to revisions, whereas final figures offer a more accurate reflection of inflation but are released later, leading to potential fluctuations in market sentiment. The RPI uses a year-over-year (YoY) reporting method, allowing for the assessment of long-term inflation trends without the influence of seasonal variations, which is pertinent for traders seeking to understand the broader economic climate.
Additional Notes
The RPI serves as a lagging indicator of inflation, reflecting past price movements rather than predicting future trends. Additionally, it is often compared to other inflation measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and its trends are closely monitored by investors for clues regarding the Bank of England's monetary policy.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates due to inflation concerns is usually good for the GBP but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Apr 17, 2019
2.4%
 2.6%
2.5%
 -0.2%
Mar 20, 2019
2.5%
 2.5%
2.5%
Feb 13, 2019
2.5%
 2.6%
2.7%
 -0.1%
Jan 16, 2019
2.7%
 2.9%
3.2%
 -0.2%
Dec 19, 2018
3.2%
 3.2%
3.3%
Nov 14, 2018
3.3%
 3.4%
3.3%
 -0.1%
Oct 17, 2018
3.3%
 3.5%
3.5%
 -0.2%
Sep 19, 2018
3.5%
 3.2%
3.2%
 0.3%
Aug 15, 2018
3.2%
 3.4%
3.4%
 -0.2%
Jul 18, 2018
3.4%
 3.5%
3.3%
 -0.1%
Jun 13, 2018
3.3%
 3.4%
3.4%
 -0.1%
May 23, 2018
3.4%
 3.4%
3.3%
Apr 18, 2018
3.3%
 3.6%
3.6%
 -0.3%
Mar 20, 2018
3.6%
 3.7%
4%
 -0.1%
Feb 13, 2018
4%
 4.1%
4.1%
 -0.1%
Jan 16, 2018
4.1%
 3.9%
3.9%
 0.2%
Dec 12, 2017
3.9%
 4%
4%
 -0.1%
Nov 14, 2017
4%
 4.1%
3.9%
 -0.1%
Oct 17, 2017
3.9%
 4%
3.9%
 -0.1%
Sep 12, 2017
3.9%
 3.7%
3.6%
 0.2%
Aug 15, 2017
3.6%
 3.5%
3.5%
 0.1%
Jul 18, 2017
3.5%
 3.7%
3.7%
 -0.2%
Jun 13, 2017
3.7%
 3.5%
3.5%
 0.2%
May 16, 2017
3.5%
 3.4%
3.1%
 0.1%
Apr 11, 2017
3.1%
 3.2%
3.2%
 -0.1%
Mar 21, 2017
3.2%
 2.9%
2.6%
 0.3%
Feb 14, 2017
2.6%
 2.8%
2.5%
 -0.2%
Jan 17, 2017
2.5%
 2.3%
2.2%
 0.2%
Dec 13, 2016
2.2%
 2.1%
2%
 0.1%
Nov 15, 2016
2%
 2.2%
2%
 -0.2%
Oct 18, 2016
2%
 2%
1.8%
Sep 13, 2016
1.8%
 1.8%
1.9%
Aug 16, 2016
1.9%
 1.7%
1.6%
 0.2%
Jul 19, 2016
1.6%
 1.5%
1.4%
 0.1%
Jun 14, 2016
1.4%
 1.4%
1.3%
May 17, 2016
1.3%
 1.5%
1.6%
 -0.2%
Apr 12, 2016
1.6%
 1.4%
1.3%
 0.2%
Mar 22, 2016
1.3%
 1.3%
1.3%
Feb 16, 2016
1.3%
 1.4%
1.2%
 -0.1%
Jan 19, 2016
1.2%
 1.1%
1.1%
 0.1%
Dec 15, 2015
1.1%
 0.9%
0.7%
 0.2%
Nov 17, 2015
0.7%
 0.9%
0.8%
 -0.2%
Oct 13, 2015
0.8%
 1%
1.1%
 -0.2%
Sep 15, 2015
1.1%
 0.9%
1%
 0.2%
Aug 18, 2015
1%
 1%
1%
Jul 14, 2015
1%
 1%
1%
Jun 16, 2015
1%
 1.1%
0.9%
 -0.1%
May 19, 2015
0.9%
 1%
0.9%
 -0.1%