Australia AUD

Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

3.85%

Forecast: 3.85%

Previous/Revision:

4.1%

Period:

Next Release:

Date:

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision measures the official cash rate set by the bank, which is a crucial tool for monetary policy aimed at influencing economic activity, inflation, and employment levels. This decision focuses on the overall economic health, assessing inflationary pressures, labor market conditions, and domestic and global economic developments.

Frequency

The RBA interest rate decision is released monthly, typically on the first Tuesday of each month, and it constitutes a finalized decision that reflects the Board's assessment rather than a preliminary estimate.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the RBA interest rate decision as it directly influences the Australian dollar (AUD), government bond yields, and equities. A higher-than-expected rate may signal tighter monetary conditions, which tends to appreciate the currency and negatively impact stocks, while a lower-than-expected rate usually has the opposite effect, creating bullish conditions for equities.

What Is It Derived From?

The interest rate decision is derived from extensive economic analysis and data collected through various reports, including GDP growth, inflation rates, employment statistics, and consumer spending trends. The RBA Board evaluates these indicators alongside forecasts and models to determine the appropriate cash rate necessary to meet its inflation target and support economic growth.

Description

Preliminary reports may emerge in the form of comments or insights leading up to the decision, but the official rate itself is final upon announcement. The report focuses on the current economic context and forecasts to guide future monetary policy actions, addressing both domestic and international influences impacting Australia's economy.

Additional Notes

The RBA interest rate decision serves as a leading indicator of future economic activity and can affect consumer spending and business investment. It plays a pivotal role in shaping expectations and financial conditions across various economic sectors, influencing not just Australia's economy but also impacting global markets through interconnected trade and capital flows.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the AUD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 20, 2025	3.85%	3.85%	4.1%
Apr 01, 2025	4.1%	4.1%	4.1%
Feb 18, 2025	4.1%	4.1%	4.35%
Dec 10, 2024	4.35%	4.35%	4.35%
Nov 05, 2024	4.35%	4.35%	4.35%
Sep 24, 2024	4.35%	4.35%	4.35%
Aug 06, 2024	4.35%	4.35%	4.35%
Jun 18, 2024	4.35%	4.35%	4.35%
May 07, 2024	4.35%	4.35%	4.35%
Mar 19, 2024	4.35%	4.35%	4.35%
Feb 06, 2024	4.35%	4.35%	4.35%
Dec 05, 2023	4.35%	4.35%	4.35%
Nov 07, 2023	4.35%	4.35%	4.1%
Oct 03, 2023	4.1%	4.1%	4.1%
Sep 05, 2023	4.1%	4.1%	4.1%
Aug 01, 2023	4.1%	4.35%	4.1%	-0.25%
Jul 04, 2023	4.1%	4.35%	4.1%	-0.25%
Jun 06, 2023	4.1%	3.85%	3.85%	0.25%
May 02, 2023	3.85%	3.6%	3.6%	0.25%
Apr 04, 2023	3.6%	3.6%	3.6%
Mar 07, 2023	3.6%	3.6%	3.35%
Feb 07, 2023	3.35%	3.35%	3.1%
Dec 06, 2022	3.1%	3.1%	2.85%
Nov 01, 2022	2.85%	2.85%	2.6%
Oct 04, 2022	2.6%	2.85%	2.35%	-0.25%
Sep 06, 2022	2.35%	2.35%	1.85%
Aug 02, 2022	1.85%	1.85%	1.35%
Jul 05, 2022	1.35%	1.35%	0.85%
Jun 07, 2022	0.85%	0.6%	0.35%	0.25%
May 03, 2022	0.35%	0.25%	0.1%	0.1%
Apr 05, 2022	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 01, 2022	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Feb 01, 2022	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Dec 07, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 02, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 05, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sep 07, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Aug 03, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Jul 06, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Jun 01, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
May 04, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Apr 06, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Mar 02, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Feb 02, 2021	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Dec 01, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 03, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.25%
Oct 06, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Sep 01, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Aug 04, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Jul 07, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Jun 02, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
May 05, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Mar 19, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.5%
Mar 03, 2020	0.5%	0.75%	0.75%	-0.25%
Feb 04, 2020	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Dec 03, 2019	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Nov 05, 2019	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Oct 01, 2019	0.75%	0.75%	1%
Sep 03, 2019	1%	1%	1%
Aug 06, 2019	1%	1%	1%
Jul 02, 2019	1%	1%	1.25%
Jun 04, 2019	1.25%	1.25%	1.5%
May 07, 2019	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Apr 02, 2019	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Mar 05, 2019	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Feb 05, 2019	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Dec 04, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Nov 06, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Oct 02, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Sep 04, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Aug 07, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Jul 03, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Jun 05, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
May 01, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Apr 03, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Mar 06, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Feb 06, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Dec 05, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Nov 07, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Oct 03, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Sep 05, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Aug 01, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Jul 04, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Jun 06, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
May 02, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Apr 04, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Mar 07, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Feb 07, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Dec 06, 2016	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Nov 01, 2016	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Oct 04, 2016	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Sep 06, 2016	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Aug 02, 2016	1.5%	1.5%	1.75%
Jul 05, 2016	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Jun 07, 2016	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
May 03, 2016	1.75%	2%	2%	-0.25%
Apr 05, 2016	2%	2%	2%
Mar 01, 2016	2%	2%	2%
Feb 02, 2016	2%	2%	2%
Dec 01, 2015	2%	2%	2%
Nov 03, 2015	2%	2%	2%
Oct 06, 2015	2%	2%	2%
Sep 01, 2015	2%	2%	2%
Aug 04, 2015	2%	2%	2%
Jul 07, 2015	2%	2%	2%
Jun 02, 2015	2%	2%	2%
May 05, 2015	2%	2%	2.25%