Australia AUD

Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
2.9%
Forecast: 2.9%
Previous/Revision:
3.3%
Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 2.6%
Period: Q2
What Does It Measure?
The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY measures the annual change in consumer prices for a basket of goods and services, excluding the most volatile items to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends in the Australian economy. It focuses on core inflation by assessing price movements across diverse categories, allowing analysts to make informed decisions regarding economic policy and consumer spending.
Frequency
This indicator is released quarterly, typically as part of the RBA's inflation report, providing both preliminary and final figures, with preliminary data often released about four weeks after the end of the quarter.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI as it significantly influences monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), impacting interest rates and inflation expectations. Higher-than-expected readings could bolster the Australian dollar and improve equity market sentiment, while weaker figures may lead to bearish conditions for both currencies and stocks.
What Is It Derived From?
The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI is derived from the consumer price index (CPI), calculated using the prices of a selected basket of goods and services, with the most extreme price changes removed to focus on the central tendency of the data. The data collection involves survey responses from households on their consumption patterns, weighted according to expenditure to reflect true consumer behavior.
Description
The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI focuses on the year-over-year changes in consumer prices, effectively removing the noise of short-term price volatility to give a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. This metric is essential for understanding the persistent inflationary pressures that can affect Australia’s economic stability and policy direction.
Additional Notes
The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI is considered a core inflation measure and acts as a leading indicator for future inflation trends, thereby providing insight into potential actions by the RBA. It is often compared with other inflation measures and serves a critical role in the broader economic analysis of both regional and global inflationary pressures.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or relaxed monetary policy, is usually good for the AUD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
2.9%
2.9%
3.3%
3.2%
3.3%
3.6%
-0.1%
3.5%
3.5%
4%
3.9%
4%
4%
-0.1%
4%
3.8%
4.2%
0.2%
4.2%
4.3%
5.2%
-0.1%
5.2%
5%
5.9%
0.2%
5.9%
6%
6.6%
-0.1%
6.6%
6.7%
6.9%
-0.1%
6.9%
6.5%
6.1%
0.4%
6.1%
5.6%
4.9%
0.5%
4.9%
4.7%
3.7%
0.2%
3.7%
3.4%
2.6%
0.3%
2.6%
2.4%
2.1%
0.2%
2.1%
1.8%
1.6%
0.3%
1.6%
1.6%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
-0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.2%
0.1%
1.2%
1.4%
1.8%
-0.2%
1.8%
1.6%
1.6%
0.2%
1.6%
1.5%
1.6%
0.1%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.6%
0.1%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
-0.1%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
1.9%
-0.1%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
0.1%
1.8%
1.9%
1.8%
-0.1%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
-0.1%