Japan JPY

Japan BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report

Impact:
High

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Quarterly Outlook Report measures the central bank’s economic forecasts, including growth, inflation, and key economic indicators for Japan. It focuses primarily on domestic economic conditions and projections, influencing monetary policy decisions based on variables such as consumer spending, business investment, and external economic factors.
Frequency
This report is released quarterly, typically in January, April, July, and October, and consists of both preliminary and final assessments, reflecting the BoJ's updated outlook on various economic conditions.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report as it directly influences monetary policy and market expectations. Changes in the economic outlook can affect the Japanese yen’s value, equity markets, and set the tone for interest rate expectations, thus impacting various asset classes on a global scale.
What Is It Derived From?
The report is derived from comprehensive analyses conducted by the BoJ, which incorporate data from various economic indicators, surveys of businesses and consumers, and econometric models. The BoJ utilizes expert judgments alongside quantitative data to formulate its forecasts and ensure a robust assessment of Japan's economic landscape.
Description
The BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report contrasts preliminary estimates based on emerging data with final figures that present a refined outlook after additional analysis. Preliminary data often leads to significant market reactions due to its timely nature, while final revisions can adjust market perceptions based on more concrete evidence. The report focuses on year-over-year comparisons to account for seasonal fluctuations and highlight longer-term economic trends.
Additional Notes
This report serves as a coincident economic measure, reflecting the current state of the economy and providing insights into Japan's growth trajectory. It is pivotal for understanding broad economic trends and how Japan compares to other regions in terms of growth and inflation dynamics, especially in the context of global economic conditions.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the JPY but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise