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United States USD

United States Interest Rate Projection - Current

Impact:
Low
Source: Federal Reserve

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
3.6%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
3.6%
Period:

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United States Interest Rate Projection measures anticipated changes in the Federal Reserve's target interest rate, reflecting expectations about monetary policy direction. It primarily focuses on influencing borrowing costs, investment, inflation, and overall economic growth prospects.
Frequency
This projection is typically released on a quarterly basis, with updates announced during Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, which occur eight times a year.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor interest rate projections as they directly affect various financial markets, including currency, equities, and bonds. Higher interest rate forecasts tend to strengthen the U.S. dollar and may lead to bearish sentiments in equities, while lower projections may have the opposite effect, influencing investment strategies.
What Is It Derived From?
Interest rate projections are derived from assessments made by FOMC members, based on economic indicators such as inflation, employment rates, and GDP growth. These assessments involve qualitative and quantitative analyses, including surveys and economic models to gauge future economic conditions.
Description
Preliminary projections are often provided shortly after FOMC meetings and are subject to revision as new economic data emerges. These projections reflect Fed members’ assessments of financial conditions and expected economic developments, with the final report issued in conjunction with official meeting minutes, which may further clarify their reasoning.
Additional Notes
Interest rate projections serve as a crucial coincident indicator within monetary policy discourse, offering insights into broader economic trends. They also have global implications, as U.S. monetary policy influences international financial conditions and currency values.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Dec 10, 2025
3.6%
3.6%
Sep 17, 2025
3.6%
3.9%
Jun 18, 2025
3.9%
3.9%
Mar 19, 2025
3.9%
4.4%
Dec 18, 2024
4.4%
4.4%
Sep 18, 2024
4.4%
5.1%
Jun 12, 2024
5.1%
4.6%
Mar 20, 2024
4.6%
5.4%
Dec 13, 2023
5.4%
5.6%
Sep 20, 2023
5.6%
5.6%
Jun 14, 2023
5.6%
5.1%
Mar 22, 2023
5.1%
4.4%
Dec 14, 2022
4.4%
4.4%
Sep 21, 2022
4.4%
3.4%
Jun 15, 2022
3.4%
1.9%
Mar 16, 2022
1.9%
0.1%
Dec 15, 2021
0.1%
0.1%