United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom GDP YoY

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.1%
| GBP
Actual:
1.1%
Forecast: 1%
Previous/Revision:
1.4%
Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Apr
What Does It Measure?
The United Kingdom GDP Year-over-Year (YoY) measures the total economic output of the country, assessing the value of all goods and services produced over a specific period compared to the same period in the previous year. It focuses on the overall health of the economy, capturing production, consumption, investments, and trade dynamics, serving as a critical indicator of economic growth or contraction.
Frequency
The GDP YoY report is released on a quarterly basis, with the preliminary estimate typically made available around 30 days after the quarter ends, followed by revisions in subsequent months.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the GDP YoY as it directly reflects the performance of the economic landscape, influencing market sentiment and expectations about future growth. Stronger-than-expected GDP figures are often bullish for the British pound (GBP) and equity markets, while disappointing results may lead to bearish sentiment in both currencies and stocks.
What Is It Derived From?
The calculation of GDP YoY involves aggregating data from various sectors within the economy, including household consumption, government spending, capital investment, and net exports. This data is compiled through methodologies such as the production approach, income approach, and expenditure approach, often based on extensive surveys and statistical sampling of economic activities.
Description
Preliminary GDP data reflects early estimates subject to future revisions, while final figures provide a more accurate representation of the economy’s performance as comprehensive data becomes available. The YoY measure is preferred for this report as it effectively highlights longer-term trends and mitigates the impact of seasonal fluctuations, making it more relevant for assessing structural economic changes.
Additional Notes
The GDP YoY is a coincident indicator, directly reflecting current economic conditions and trends. It serves as a key barometer for understanding broader economic dynamics within the UK and is often compared with similar indicators from other developed economies to gauge relative performance.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
1.1%
1%
1.4%
0.1%
1.4%
0.9%
1.2%
0.5%
1%
1.2%
1.5%
-0.2%
1.5%
1%
1.1%
0.5%
1%
1.3%
1.1%
-0.3%
1.3%
1.6%
1%
-0.3%
1%
1.1%
1.1%
-0.1%
1%
1.4%
0.9%
-0.4%
1.2%
1.4%
0.7%
-0.2%
0.7%
0.8%
1.4%
-0.1%
1.4%
1.2%
0.7%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0%
0.4%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.1%
0.2%
-0.3%
-0.3%
0%
0%
0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
-0.1%
0.3%
0.6%
1.3%
-0.3%
1.3%
1%
0.5%
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0%
0.4%
0.9%
-0.4%
0.9%
0.5%
-0.3%
0.4%
-0.4%
-0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.6%
-0.1%
0.5%
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
0.6%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
1.1%
-0.1%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
0.1%
1.3%
0.9%
2.5%
0.4%
2%
2.4%
3.1%
-0.4%
2.3%
2.6%
1.9%
-0.3%
1.9%
1.2%
3.3%
0.7%
3.5%
2.7%
3.7%
0.8%
3.4%
3.9%
6.4%
-0.5%
6.4%
6.8%
9.3%
-0.4%
9.5%
9.5%
10.5%
10%
9.3%
6%
0.7%
6%
6.3%
7.5%
-0.3%
8%
7.5%
5.1%
0.5%
4.6%
4.9%
5.3%
-0.3%
5.3%
5.4%
6.6%
-0.1%
6.9%
6.7%
8.8%
0.2%
7.5%
8%
15.2%
-0.5%
15.2%
14.9%
24.5%
0.3%
24.6%
25.9%
27.4%
-1.3%
27.6%
27.6%
1.4%
1.4%
1%
-7.8%
0.4%
-7.8%
-8.3%
-8.5%
0.5%
-9.2%
-10.9%
-6.5%
1.7%
-6.5%
-8%
-7.6%
1.5%
-8.9%
-12.1%
-6.8%
3.2%
-8.2%
-8.3%
-8.4%
0.1%
-8.4%
-8.4%
-9.3%
-9.3%
-7.5%
-11.3%
-1.8%
-11.7%
-11.3%
-16.8%
-0.4%
-16.8%
-18.5%
-23.3%
1.7%
-24%
-20.4%
-25.3%
-3.6%
-24.5%
-22.6%
-5.7%
-1.9%
-5.7%
-7.2%
0.2%
1.5%
0.3%
0.5%
0.7%
-0.2%
0.6%
0.9%
1.2%
-0.3%
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.6%
0.6%
1%
0.7%
0.7%
0.9%
0.9%
1%
1%
-0.1%
1.1%
0.9%
1.3%
0.2%
1%
0.8%
1%
0.2%
1%
1.2%
1.4%
-0.2%