United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.1%

GBP

Actual:

1.3%

Forecast: 1.2%

Previous/Revision:

1.5%

Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Q2

What Does It Measure?

The United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel measures the percentage change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the UK from one year to the next, capturing overall economic growth. It assesses the health of the economy by focusing on production and consumption, encompassing key indicators such as personal consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports.

Frequency

This preliminary report is released quarterly, typically available around the end of the first month following the quarter's conclusion, providing an early estimate of the GDP growth before final revisions are made.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the GDP Growth Rate because it directly impacts financial markets, influencing currency values, stock performance, and bond yields. Positive or higher-than-expected growth figures are bullish for the British pound and equities, signaling a robust economy, while weaker readings may prompt bearish responses.

What Is It Derived From?

The GDP Growth Rate is derived from a comprehensive compilation of economic data, including surveys and reports from businesses, consumers, and government agencies. It follows standard calculation methods that include expenditure, production approaches, and income accounting to aggregate all economic activity.

Description

Preliminary reports rely on early estimations based on source data received during the reporting period, while final reports undergo thorough revisions for greater accuracy. The YoY comparison provides insight into long-term economic trends, eliminating seasonal variations and allowing for clearer analysis of the economy's structural changes.

Additional Notes

This indicator serves as a coincident economic measure, reflecting current economic activity, and it plays a crucial role in understanding broader economic trends in the UK. Comparisons with similar indicators, such as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) or consumer confidence indices, can shed light on the GDP’s implications for future growth prospects.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the GBP but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	1.3%	1.2%	1.5%	0.1%
Feb 13, 2025	1.4%	1.1%	1%	0.3%
Nov 15, 2024	1%	1%	0.7%
Aug 15, 2024	0.9%	0.9%	0.3%
May 10, 2024	0.2%	0%	-0.2%	0.2%
Feb 15, 2024	-0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.3%
Nov 10, 2023	0.6%	0.5%	0.6%	0.1%
Aug 11, 2023	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
May 12, 2023	0.2%	0.2%	0.6%
Feb 10, 2023	0.4%	0.4%	1.9%
Nov 11, 2022	2.4%	2.1%	4.4%	0.3%
Aug 12, 2022	2.9%	2.8%	8.7%	0.1%
May 12, 2022	8.7%	9%	6.6%	-0.3%
Feb 11, 2022	6.5%	6.4%	7%	0.1%
Nov 11, 2021	6.6%	6.8%	23.6%	-0.2%
Aug 12, 2021	22.2%	22.1%	-6.1%	0.1%
May 12, 2021	-6.1%	-6.1%	-7.3%
Feb 12, 2021	-7.8%	-8.1%	-8.7%	0.3%
Nov 12, 2020	-9.6%	-9.4%	-21.5%	-0.2%
Aug 12, 2020	-21.7%	-22.4%	-1.7%	0.7%
May 13, 2020	-1.6%	-2.1%	1.1%	0.5%
Feb 11, 2020	1.1%	1.1%	1.2%
Nov 11, 2019	1%	1.1%	1.3%	-0.1%
Aug 09, 2019	1.2%	1.4%	1.8%	-0.2%
May 10, 2019	1.8%	1.8%	1.4%
Feb 11, 2019	1.3%	1.4%	1.6%	-0.1%
Nov 09, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.2%
Aug 10, 2018	1.3%	1.2%	1.2%	0.1%
Apr 27, 2018	1.2%	1.4%	1.4%	-0.2%
Jan 26, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.7%
Oct 25, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Jul 26, 2017	1.7%	1.7%	2%
Apr 28, 2017	2.1%	2.2%	1.9%	-0.1%
Jan 26, 2017	2.2%	2.1%	2.2%	0.1%
Oct 27, 2016	2.3%	2.1%	2.1%	0.2%
Jul 27, 2016	2.2%	2%	2%	0.2%
Apr 27, 2016	2.1%	2%	2.1%	0.1%
Jan 28, 2016	1.9%	1.9%	2.1%
Oct 27, 2015	2.3%	2.4%	2.4%	-0.1%
Jul 28, 2015	2.6%	2.6%	2.9%