United States USD

United States Philly Fed New Orders

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

-1.9

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

18.4

Period: Aug

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Sep

What Does It Measure?

The Philadelphia Fed New Orders Index measures the level of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district, which provides insight into future manufacturing activity. The primary focus is on production-related orders, and it assesses key components like employment, inventory levels, and general manufacturing health; values above 0 indicate expansion while values below 0 signal contraction.

Frequency

This economic event is reported monthly, typically released on the third Thursday of each month as a preliminary estimate.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Philly Fed New Orders Index because it serves as an early indicator of economic activity in the manufacturing sector, which can influence financial markets. A higher-than-expected reading is generally bullish for the U.S. dollar and equity markets, while disappointing figures may lead to bearish sentiment across currency and stock assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey of manufacturing firms in the Philadelphia region, with responses collected regarding their new orders over the prior month. It uses a diffusion index method, where a positive value indicates growth, and a negative value indicates decline, ensuring that the results reflect sentiment in the manufacturing sector accurately.

Description

Preliminary reports are based on initial survey data and are subject to revision, while final reports provide a more accurate reflection of the orders but are released later. The month-over-month (MoM) comparison is often used to gauge short-term trends, revealing immediate shifts in manufacturing demand and allowing traders to quickly assess market conditions.

Additional Notes

The Philly Fed New Orders Index is considered a leading economic indicator, providing foresight into manufacturing trends that can affect the broader economy. It works in conjunction with other manufacturing indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing Index, offering a comprehensive view of the national economic landscape.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Aug 21, 2025	-1.9		18.4
Jul 17, 2025	18.4		2.3
Jun 20, 2025	2.3		7.5
May 15, 2025	7.5		-34.2
Apr 17, 2025	-34.2		8.7
Mar 20, 2025	8.7		21.9
Feb 20, 2025	21.9		42.9
Jan 16, 2025	42.9		-3.6
Dec 19, 2024	-4.3		8.9
Nov 21, 2024	8.9		14.2
Oct 17, 2024	14.2		-1.5
Sep 19, 2024	-1.5		14.6
Aug 15, 2024	14.6		20.7
Jul 18, 2024	20.7		-2.2
Jun 20, 2024	-2.2		-7.9
May 16, 2024	-7.9		12.2
Apr 18, 2024	12.2		5.4
Mar 21, 2024	5.4		-5.2
Feb 15, 2024	-5.2		-17.9
Jan 18, 2024	-17.9		-22.1
Dec 21, 2023	-25.6		1.3
Nov 16, 2023	1.3		4.4
Oct 19, 2023	4.4		-10.2
Sep 21, 2023	-10.2		16
Aug 17, 2023	16	-13.5	-15.9	29.5
Jul 20, 2023	-15.9	-10	-11	-5.9
Jun 15, 2023	-11	-15.8	-8.9	4.8
May 18, 2023	-8.9	-25.7	-22.7	16.8
Apr 20, 2023	-22.7	-21.2	-28.2	-1.5
Mar 16, 2023	-28.2	-11	-13.6	-17.2
Feb 16, 2023	-13.6	-9	-10.9	-4.6
Jan 19, 2023	-10.9	-23	-22.3	12.1
Dec 15, 2022	-25.8	-5	-16.2	-20.8
Nov 17, 2022	-16.2	-13	-15.9	-3.2
Oct 20, 2022	-15.9	-13	-17.6	-2.9
Sep 15, 2022	-17.6	-2	-5.1	-15.6
Aug 18, 2022	-5.1	-19	-24.8	13.9
Jul 21, 2022	-24.8	-9	-12.4	-15.8
Jun 16, 2022	-12.4	23	22.1	-35.4
May 19, 2022	22.1	17.2	17.8	4.9
Apr 21, 2022	17.8	25	25.8	-7.2
Mar 17, 2022	25.8	15	14.2	10.8
Feb 17, 2022	14.2	10	17.9	4.2
Jan 20, 2022	17.9	15	13.7	2.9
Dec 16, 2021	13.7	46	47.4	-32.3
Nov 18, 2021	47.4		30.8
Oct 21, 2021	30.8		15.9