United States USD

United States Philly Fed Prices Paid

Impact:
Low
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
59.8
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
51
Period: May

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Jun
What Does It Measure?
The United States Philly Fed Prices Paid is an economic indicator that measures the prices that manufacturers, service providers, and retail firms in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District have paid for inputs. This indicator primarily focuses on inflationary pressures within the manufacturing and service sectors, assessing key areas such as raw material costs and price trends, with a vital threshold of 50 indicating expansion and below 50 suggesting contraction.
Frequency
The Philly Fed Prices Paid index is released monthly, typically on the third Thursday of each month, and consists of preliminary estimates that may be revised in subsequent reports.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor the Philly Fed Prices Paid as it provides insight into inflationary trends that can influence monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. A higher-than-expected reading may lead to expectations of tightening monetary policy, affecting the valuations of currencies, equities, and bonds due to changing interest rate considerations.
What Is It Derived From?
The prices paid index is derived from a survey of firms in the Philadelphia region, where respondents report on the changes in prices they are paying for inputs compared to the previous month. The survey employs a diffusion index methodology that captures whether prices are increasing or decreasing, with data weighted to represent various sectors accurately.
Description
The Philly Fed Prices Paid index reflects early insights into price movements and inflationary trends within both the manufacturing and service sectors, serving as a critical indicator for inflation expectations. While it is primarily based on responses from local firms, its implications resonate nationally, influencing broader economic outlooks and monetary policy goals.
Additional Notes
This indicator serves as a leading economic measure, providing early signals of inflationary trends that could align with or diverge from other indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Notably, the trend shown by the Philly Fed Prices Paid can parallel similar surveys, such as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Prices Index, and offers a localized perspective on inflationary pressures within the context of the national economy.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
May 15, 2025
59.8
51
Apr 17, 2025
51
48.3
Mar 20, 2025
48.3
40.5
Feb 20, 2025
40.5
31.9
Jan 16, 2025
31.9
26.6
Dec 19, 2024
31.2
26.6
Nov 21, 2024
26.6
29.7
Oct 17, 2024
29.7
34
Sep 19, 2024
34
24
Aug 15, 2024
24
19.8
Jul 18, 2024
19.8
22.5
Jun 20, 2024
22.5
18.7
May 16, 2024
18.7
23
Apr 18, 2024
23
3.7
Mar 21, 2024
3.7
16.6
Feb 15, 2024
16.6
11.3
Jan 18, 2024
11.3
24.3
Dec 21, 2023
25.1
14.8
Nov 16, 2023
14.8
23.1
Oct 19, 2023
23.1
25.7
Sep 21, 2023
25.7
20.8
Aug 17, 2023
20.8
 10.1
9.5
 10.7
Jul 20, 2023
9.5
 10.7
10.5
 -1.2
Jun 15, 2023
10.5
 9.5
10.9
 1
May 18, 2023
10.9
 8.1
8.2
 2.8
Apr 20, 2023
8.2
 28
23.5
 -19.8
Mar 16, 2023
23.5
 27
26.5
 -3.5
Feb 16, 2023
26.5
 23
24.5
 3.5
Jan 19, 2023
24.5
 24
36.3
 0.5
Dec 15, 2022
26.4
 34
35.3
 -7.6
Nov 17, 2022
35.3
 37
36.3
 -1.7
Oct 20, 2022
36.3
 28
29.8
 8.3
Sep 15, 2022
29.8
 43
43.6
 -13.2
Aug 18, 2022
43.6
 52
52.2
 -8.4
Jul 21, 2022
52.2
 65
64.5
 -12.8
Jun 16, 2022
64.5
 78
78.9
 -13.5
May 19, 2022
78.9
 84.2
84.6
 -5.3
Apr 21, 2022
84.6
 83
81
 1.6
Mar 17, 2022
81
 70
69.3
 11
Feb 17, 2022
69.3
 75
72.5
 -5.7
Jan 20, 2022
72.5
 66
66.1
 6.5
Dec 16, 2021
66.1
 83
80
 -16.9
Nov 18, 2021
80
70.3
Oct 21, 2021
70.3
67.3