United States USD

United States Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

-6.5%

USD

Actual:

-6.6%

Forecast: -0.1%

Previous/Revision:

5.1%

Period: Nov

What Does It Measure?

The United States Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for durable goods, excluding defense-related goods, from one month to the next. This indicator reflects consumer and business spending trends, serving as a proxy for manufacturing activity, economic health, and future production levels.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically in the last week of the month, and is presented as a preliminary estimate followed by a final revision in subsequent months.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor Durable Goods Orders as it provides critical insight into manufacturing strength and consumer demand, influencing financial markets significantly. A higher-than-expected result typically strengthens the U.S. dollar and may boost stock prices, while weaker figures may have the opposite effect, impacting economic forecasts.

What Is It Derived From?

Durable Goods Orders are derived from surveys conducted with manufacturers, where responses indicate the total value of new orders for specific durable goods over a designated month. The data collection includes a wide array of industries and utilizes industry standards to compile a comprehensive representation of economic activity.

Description

The Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM only focuses on non-defense orders, making it a pertinent measure for assessing the core manufacturing sector without the volatility of defense spending. By delivering a month-over-month change, it provides a timely snapshot of economic momentum, allowing traders and analysts to gauge short-term trends effectively.

Additional Notes

This indicator is considered a leading measure of economic activity as it signals potential future manufacturing output and trends in consumer and business expenditures. Durable Goods Orders are often compared to other economic indicators like employment data and GDP growth to assess the broader economic context.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 22, 2016	-6.6%	-0.1%	5.1%	-6.5%
Nov 23, 2016	5.2%	0.6%	1.4%	4.6%
Oct 27, 2016	0.7%	0.6%	-0.7%	0.1%
Sep 28, 2016	-1%	-1.1%	3%	0.1%
Aug 25, 2016	3.8%	2.2%	-4%	1.6%
Jul 27, 2016	-3.9%	-0.11%	-1.6%	-3.79%
Jun 24, 2016	-0.9%	-1.17%	3.7%	0.27%
May 26, 2016	3.7%	1.24%	-0.6%	2.46%
Apr 26, 2016	-1%	0.4%	-2.3%	-1.4%
Mar 24, 2016	-1.9%	-1.8%	3.7%	-0.1%
Feb 25, 2016	4.5%	1.5%	-2.5%	3%
Jan 28, 2016	-2.9%	-0.73%	-2%	-2.17%
Dec 23, 2015	-1.5%	-0.2%	3%	-1.3%
Nov 25, 2015	3.2%	0.2%	-1.6%	3%
Oct 27, 2015	-2%	-0.2%	-2.1%	-1.8%
Sep 24, 2015	-1%	-1.2%	0.9%	0.2%
Aug 26, 2015	1%	-0.36%	4.2%	1.36%
Jul 27, 2015	3.8%	0.2%	-2.4%	3.6%
Jun 23, 2015	-2.1%	-0.27%	-0.8%	-1.83%
May 26, 2015	0.2%	0.4%	3.4%	-0.2%