United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate YoY Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.1%

Actual:

1.5%

Forecast: 1.4%

Previous/Revision:

1.2%

Period: Q4

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 1.3%

Period: Q1

What Does It Measure?

The United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate Year-over-Year (YoY) Final measures the annual increase in the country’s gross domestic product, a comprehensive indicator of economic activity. This metric assesses overall production output, employment levels, and consumer spending, providing insights into the economic health of the nation.

Frequency

This indicator is released on a quarterly basis, with the figure being the final version that reflects comprehensive data after preliminary estimates are published, typically available about one month after the quarter’s end.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the GDP growth rate closely because it is a key indicator of the economic performance of the UK; higher-than-expected growth supports a bullish sentiment in the financial markets, influencing currencies like the GBP and prompting investor confidence that can positively affect stocks. Timely updates from this indicator are crucial for economic forecasts and strategic financial planning.

What Is It Derived From?

The GDP growth rate is derived from the compilation of various economic data sources, including production metrics from all sectors of the economy, investment spending, government consumption, and net exports. The calculation employs established national accounting standards, aggregating data from numerous surveys and economic reports to ensure accuracy.

Description

The GDP Growth Rate YoY compares the current year's economic output to that of the previous year, providing a clear view of long-term growth trends unaffected by seasonal fluctuations. This measure enables analysts to understand the economy's trajectory and make informed predictions about future performance and potential monetary policy adjustments.

Additional Notes

As a coincident economic indicator, the GDP growth rate provides insights that correlate closely with current economic conditions and overall economic health. Comparisons to other indicators, such as employment rates or consumer spending, reinforce its significance in understanding economic dynamics and regional comparisons.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 28, 2025	1.5%	1.4%	1.2%	0.1%
Dec 23, 2024	0.9%	1%	0.7%	-0.1%
Sep 30, 2024	0.7%	0.9%	0.3%	-0.2%
Jun 28, 2024	0.3%	0.2%	-0.2%	0.1%
Mar 28, 2024	-0.2%	-0.2%	0.2%
Dec 22, 2023	0.3%	0.6%	0.3%	-0.3%
Sep 29, 2023	0.6%	0.4%	0.5%	0.2%
Jun 30, 2023	0.2%	0.2%	0.6%
Mar 31, 2023	0.6%	0.4%	2%	0.2%
Dec 22, 2022	1.9%	2.4%	4%	-0.5%
Sep 30, 2022	4.4%	2.9%	10.9%	1.5%
Jun 30, 2022	8.7%	8.7%	6.6%
Mar 31, 2022	6.6%	6.5%	6.9%	0.1%
Dec 22, 2021	6.8%	6.6%	24.2%	0.2%
Sep 30, 2021	23.6%	22.2%	-5.8%	1.4%
Jun 30, 2021	-6.1%	-6.1%	-7.3%
Mar 31, 2021	-7.3%	-7.8%	-8.5%	0.5%
Dec 22, 2020	-8.6%	-9.6%	-20.8%	1%
Sep 30, 2020	-21.5%	-21.7%	-2.1%	0.2%
Jun 30, 2020	-1.7%	-1.6%	1.1%	-0.1%
Mar 31, 2020	1.1%	1.1%	1.3%
Dec 20, 2019	1.1%	1%	1.2%	0.1%
Sep 30, 2019	1.3%	1.2%	2.1%	0.1%
Jun 28, 2019	1.8%	1.8%	1.4%
Mar 29, 2019	1.4%	1.3%	1.6%	0.1%
Dec 21, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.4%
Sep 28, 2018	1.2%	1.3%	1.1%	-0.1%
Jun 29, 2018	1.2%	1.2%	1.3%
Mar 29, 2018	1.4%	1.4%	1.8%
Dec 22, 2017	1.7%	1.5%	1.9%	0.2%
Sep 29, 2017	1.5%	1.7%	1.8%	-0.2%
Jun 30, 2017	2%	2%	1.9%
Mar 31, 2017	1.9%	2%	2%	-0.1%
Dec 23, 2016	2.2%	2.3%	2%	-0.1%
Sep 30, 2016	2.1%	2.2%	2%	-0.1%
Jun 30, 2016	2%	2%	1.8%
Mar 31, 2016	2.1%	1.9%	2.2%	0.2%
Dec 23, 2015	2.1%	2.3%	2.3%	-0.2%
Sep 30, 2015	2.4%	2.6%	2.7%	-0.2%
Jun 30, 2015	2.9%	2.5%	3.4%	0.4%