Canada CAD

Canada Retail Sales MoM Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Statistics Canada

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.1%

CAD

Actual:

0.8%

Forecast: 0.7%

Previous/Revision:

-0.5%

Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 0.5%

Period: Apr

What Does It Measure?

The Canada Retail Sales MoM Final measures the total dollar value of retail sales across the country, specifically assessing consumer spending behavior on a month-over-month basis. It primarily focuses on retail demand, with key areas including the performance of various retail sectors such as food, clothing, and automobiles.

Frequency

This indicator is released monthly, typically about 30 days after the end of the reporting month, presenting the final figures after potential revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders watch the Canada Retail Sales MoM Final closely as it reflects consumer spending trends, which are vital for economic growth. A strong sales report can drive optimism in financial markets, often leading to a stronger Canadian dollar and increased bullish sentiments in equities.

What Is It Derived From?

The Retail Sales MoM Final is derived from surveys sent to a systematic sample of retail businesses across Canada, where data is collected regarding sales figures. The calculations utilize a methodology that includes adjustments for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy in representing the retail sector's performance month-to-month.

Description

The distinction between preliminary and final reports is crucial in the retail sales data; preliminary data is based on early estimates and is subject to revisions, while the final data reflects more accurate and complete figures. This data is reported month-over-month (MoM), comparing sales figures to the previous month, which helps identify short-term trends and sudden shifts in consumer behavior.

Additional Notes

The Canada Retail Sales MoM Final serves as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current economic conditions and consumer confidence. It is often analyzed alongside other indicators like GDP growth and employment data to provide a comprehensive view of the economic landscape.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 23, 2025	0.8%	0.7%	-0.5%	0.1%
Apr 25, 2025	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.6%
Mar 21, 2025	-0.6%	-0.4%	2.6%	-0.2%
Feb 21, 2025	2.5%	1.6%	0%	0.9%
Jan 23, 2025	0%	0.2%	0.6%	-0.2%