United States USD

United States PCE Prices QoQ 2 Est

Impact:
Low
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
3.7%
Forecast: 3.7%
Previous/Revision:
-1.6%
Period: Q3
What Does It Measure?
The United States Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices measure the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services. It focuses on assessing the inflationary trend affecting household consumption and is a key indicator of overall economic health, with PCE price index values above 2% typically indicating higher inflation pressures.
Frequency
This report is released monthly, typically with a preliminary estimate published on the last business day of the month following the reference month, and includes both final and revised figures.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor PCE Prices as it is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and influences monetary policy decisions. Higher-than-expected results can strengthen the dollar and improve equity markets, while weaker readings might lead to bearish sentiment in both currencies and stocks as they suggest cooling inflation.
What Is It Derived From?
The PCE Prices index is derived from a comprehensive survey of household spending patterns, including personal consumption expenditures reported by businesses. It aggregates data from multiple sectors using a chain-weighted formula, allowing for adjustments in consumer behavior and price changes over time.
Description
The distinction between preliminary and final reports is significant; preliminary data is considered an early estimate and may undergo revisions, making it more susceptible to market reactions. Final reports reflect a more accurate assessment of consumer inflation but can lead to adjustments in market sentiment as they provide clarity on economic trends. In this case, the PCE Prices data is typically reported on a quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) basis, which allows analysis of inflation trends over medium-term periods while avoiding seasonal distortions.
Additional Notes
The PCE Prices index serves as a leading indicator of inflationary trends and is closely correlated with other economic measures such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Its implications stretch beyond the United States, influencing global economic assessments and the monetary policy framework of other nations.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Nov 25, 2020
3.7%
 3.7%
-1.6%
Aug 27, 2020
-1.8%
 -1.9%
1.3%
 0.1%
May 28, 2020
1.3%
 1.3%
1.4%
Nov 27, 2019
1.5%
 1.5%
2.4%
Aug 29, 2019
2.3%
 2.3%
0.4%
May 30, 2019
0.4%
 0.6%
1.5%
 -0.2%
Nov 28, 2018
1.5%
 1.6%
2%
 -0.1%
Aug 29, 2018
1.9%
 1.8%
2.5%
 0.1%
May 30, 2018
2.6%
 2.7%
2.7%
 -0.1%
Feb 28, 2018
2.7%
 2.8%
1.5%
 -0.1%
Nov 29, 2017
1.5%
 1.5%
0.3%
Aug 30, 2017
0.3%
 0.3%
2.2%
May 26, 2017
2.4%
 2.3%
2.3%
 0.1%
Feb 28, 2017
1.9%
 2.2%
1.5%
 -0.3%
Nov 29, 2016
1.4%
 1.4%
1.4%
Aug 26, 2016
2%
 1.9%
0.2%
 0.1%
May 27, 2016
0.3%
 0.3%
0.3%
Feb 26, 2016
0.4%
 0.1%
1.3%
 0.3%
Nov 24, 2015
1.3%
 1.2%
2.2%
 0.1%
Aug 27, 2015
2.2%
 2.2%
-2%
May 29, 2015
-2%
 -2%
-0.4%