United States USD

United States PCE Prices QoQ

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
1.5%
Forecast: 1.5%
Previous/Revision:
1.6%
Period: Q4
What Does It Measure?
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices measure the changes in the price of goods and services consumed by individuals in the United States, specifically assessing inflation trends. It focuses on consumer spending patterns and price stability, with key indicators including the overall PCE index and its core component excluding food and energy prices.
Frequency
The PCE Prices report is released monthly, providing updated economic data that typically includes both preliminary and final figures with a release that occurs near the end of each month.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor PCE Prices because it serves as a key inflation gauge influencing Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions, affecting market expectations for interest rates. Higher-than-expected PCE data can be bullish for the U.S. dollar and bearish for equities, as it often indicates tighter monetary policy ahead.
What Is It Derived From?
The PCE Prices are derived from a wide-ranging survey of consumer spending conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, capturing data on the prices of a diverse array of goods and services. The indicator utilizes a chained index approach to reflect actual consumer behavior and includes adjustments for changes in consumption patterns.
Description
The PCE Prices report is often referenced in terms of year-over-year (YoY) changes, which allow for a thorough analysis of inflationary trends over a longer term, stripping away seasonal volatility. This YoY comparison is favored as it provides insight into sustained price movements, making it a critical indicator for assessing the economic climate and future monetary policy actions.
Additional Notes
The PCE Prices serve as a coincident economic measure reflecting current consumer price dynamics, and it is often compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for a holistic view of inflation. This indicator also plays a crucial role in analyzing trends within the broader global economic context, impacting investor sentiment and policy frameworks internationally.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Feb 28, 2019
1.5%
 1.5%
1.6%