United States USD

United States PCE Prices QoQ Final

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.1%
Actual:
3.7%
Forecast: 3.6%
Previous/Revision:
2.4%
Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Q2
What Does It Measure?
The United States Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices measure the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, specifically focusing on household consumption expenditure. It assesses inflation trends and consumer behavior, relying on key indicators such as the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to provide a clearer picture of underlying inflationary pressures.
Frequency
The PCE Prices report is released monthly, with the final figures typically published towards the end of the month following the reporting period to provide a more accurate reflection after reviewing preliminary data.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the PCE Prices as it is a key inflation indicator influencing monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, impacting interest rates and, consequently, the valuation of the U.S. Dollar and equity markets. An increase in PCE Prices could signal inflationary pressure that may lead to tighter monetary policy, while lower readings may support a more accommodative stance.
What Is It Derived From?
PCE Prices are derived from a comprehensive survey administered by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), utilizing data collected from businesses and households to assess consumer spending patterns. The calculation employs a weighted index methodology, reflecting the relative importance of different goods and services based on actual consumer spending.
Description
The PCE Prices report contrasts preliminary estimates, which are subject to revisions, with final data that serves as a more accurate gauge of inflation trends leading to market adjustments. The report typically focuses on Year-over-Year (YoY) changes, allowing for an understanding of long-term trends while minimizing seasonal fluctuations.
Additional Notes
As a coincident economic measure, PCE Prices are often compared with other inflation indices, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), to give a deeper insight into the inflation landscape. This indicator is also particularly relevant in global economic discussions, as U.S. inflation directly influences monetary policy not only domestically but across the world.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower borrowing costs is usually bad for the USD but good for Stocks due to cheaper financing.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
3.7%
3.6%
2.4%
0.1%
2.4%
2.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
3.4%
3.4%
3.3%
1.8%
0.1%
1.8%
1.8%
2.6%
2.6%
2.8%
2.5%
-0.2%
2.5%
2.5%
4.2%
4.1%
4.2%
3.7%
-0.1%
3.7%
3.7%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
7.3%
7.3%
7.1%
7.5%
0.2%
7.1%
7%
6.4%
0.1%
6.4%
6.3%
5.3%
0.1%
5.3%
5.3%
6.5%
6.5%
6.5%
3.8%
3.7%
3.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
-1.6%
-1.6%
-1.8%
1.3%
0.2%
1.3%
1.2%
1.3%
0.1%
1.4%
1.3%
1.5%
0.1%
1.5%
1.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
0.4%
0.1%
0.5%
0.4%
1.5%
0.1%
1.5%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
1.9%
2%
-0.3%
2%
1.9%
2.5%
0.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2.7%
-0.1%
2.7%
2.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.6%
0.3%
-0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
2.2%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2%
2.1%
2.2%
-0.1%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
0.1%
2%
2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
-0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
1.3%
-0.1%
1.3%
1.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
-1.9%
-2%
-2%
-0.4%