United States USD

United States Treasury Refunding Announcement

Impact:
Low

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United States Treasury Refunding Announcement measures the government's plans to issue debt securities, primarily bonds, to finance its budgetary needs and refinance existing debt. It focuses on the amount and types of securities to be offered and assesses components such as interest rates, maturity durations, and overall market appetite for U.S. debt, serving as a national indicator of the government's fiscal strategy.
Frequency
This announcement is released quarterly, typically a week before each scheduled Treasury bond auction, and it provides a preliminary estimate of the upcoming debt issuance.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor this announcement closely because it signals the supply of Treasury securities, which directly impacts interest rates and investor sentiment in financial markets. Increased issuance may lead to higher yields, which can affect key assets such as the U.S. dollar, stocks, and bonds, thereby influencing broader economic forecasts.
What Is It Derived From?
The announcement is derived from the Treasury Department's assessments of current market conditions, federal budget needs, and economic forecasts. It is based on historical issuance patterns and market demand, and while it does not involve surveys, it reflects the government's strategic approach to debt management.
Description
The Treasury Refunding Announcement typically includes details on the amount of debt to be issued, including types of securities (such as notes and bonds), maturities, and anticipated dates for auction. Preliminary reports provide initial estimates, while the final figures are confirmed after the issuance takes place, evaluating the reception by the market and adjusting future strategies accordingly.
Additional Notes
This announcement serves as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting near-term fiscal policy and borrowing trends. It is often compared to other indicators like the federal budget deficit or employment figures, which also influence the Treasury's borrowing strategy.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected issuance: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling ongoing need for government funding, is usually bad for the USD but may provide support for Stocks due to lower interest rates associated with increased liquidity.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise