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United States USD

United States Fed Yellen Testimony

Impact:
Medium
Source: Federal Reserve

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
 
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:  
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United States Federal Reserve Chairperson's testimony, often led by the current chair at the time (e.g., Janet Yellen), measures insights into U.S. monetary policy, economic outlook, and regulatory considerations. This event primarily focuses on the economic conditions impacting employment, inflation, and overall financial stability, providing critical indications of future policy direction.
Frequency
The testimony is typically delivered semi-annually, coinciding with the release of the Monetary Policy Report, and is generally presented in February and July, with a preliminary estimate often communicated beforehand.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor the Fed Chair's testimony as it significantly influences market sentiment and has direct implications for monetary policy, affecting key assets like the U.S. dollar, equities, and bonds. Any indications of future interest rate changes or shifts in economic outlook can lead to immediate market movements, making this event a critical element in economic forecasting.
What Is It Derived From?
The testimony is derived from a combination of economic data analyses, assessments of financial markets, and insights from regional Federal Reserve Banks. It reflects the collective views and recommendations of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and is informed by various economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment rates, and inflation metrics.
Description
The Federal Reserve Chair's testimony is an oral report that outlines the central bank's policy stance and economic forecasts based on recent data trends. It presents both preliminary observations and the rationale behind potential policy changes, heavily influencing trader expectations and market stability.
Additional Notes
The testimony serves as a coincident economic measure, providing real-time insights into the Fed's current economic outlook and policy intentions. It is often compared with other reports, such as the minutes from FOMC meetings and inflationary data, to forecast broader economic trends.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
If the testimony indicates a hawkish stance with mentions of increasing rates due to inflation concerns, it is higher than expected and bullish for the U.S. dollar but bearish for stocks due to higher borrowing costs. Conversely, a dovish tone, suggesting lower rates or cautious spending, may lower expectations and thus be bullish for stocks while being bearish for the dollar.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Feb 15, 2017
 
  
Feb 14, 2017
 
  
Nov 17, 2016
 
  
Sep 28, 2016