China CNY

China New Year's Day

Impact:
Low

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
China's New Year's Day, also known as the Spring Festival, is a significant public holiday that measures cultural, social, and economic activities across the nation during this pivotal time. Primarily, it assesses consumer spending patterns, production levels in industries like retail and manufacturing, and the overall economic sentiment as families reunite and participate in festive celebrations, impacting key indicators such as retail sales and travel.
Frequency
The event occurs annually and is celebrated on a varying date in late January or early February, depending on the lunar calendar, and its economic indicators are released shortly after the festivities.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor economic reports associated with the Spring Festival due to its potential to influence consumer spending and economic growth forecasts, which can impact asset classes such as the Chinese Yuan and equities. A surge in spending during this time is often seen as a bullish sign for the economy, suggesting increased demand that can drive stock prices higher.
What Is It Derived From?
Economic data related to China's New Year's Day is derived from various sources, including consumer surveys, retail sector reports, and travel statistics that capture the increased spending and mobility during the holiday. The assessment involves data collection from retail operators, transportation services, and service providers, using methodologies designed to estimate overall economic impact.
Description
The significance of the Spring Festival is underscored by its role in Chinese culture and economy, as it marks a time of family gatherings and festive spending, creating seasonal spikes in economic activity. While there are no preliminary and final reports distinguishing this event, the data that emerges post-holiday can reflect immediate economic conditions and consumer behavior trends.
Additional Notes
The Chinese New Year period often serves as a coincident indicator, reflecting current economic conditions and consumer confidence levels, as heightened spending activities can correlate with overall economic health. Additionally, comparisons are frequently made with other national festivals or economic events to better understand seasonal trends within the broader economy.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise