United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom MPs Vote on Withdrawal Agreement Bill

Impact:
Low

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
This event measures the legislative approval process regarding the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which is crucial for the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union. It primarily focuses on political decision-making and its implications for trade, regulatory alignment, and economic certainty within national and international markets.
Frequency
The vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill is not released on a regular schedule; rather, it occurs as determined by the political context and parliamentary agenda, typically when there are significant developments regarding Brexit negotiations.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to this vote because its outcome can significantly influence market sentiment regarding the UK's economic stability and its relationship with the EU, impacting the value of the British pound (GBP) as well as trader confidence in UK equities. A positive result may lead to appreciation in GBP and stocks, while a negative outcome could trigger declines and market volatility.
What Is It Derived From?
The vote is derived from parliamentary procedures and represents the collective decision of Members of Parliament (MPs), each of whom contributes their vote based on party lines and individual assessments of the agreement’s implications. The bill’s presentation involves discussions, amendments, and analyses preceding the actual vote, guided by parliamentary protocol.
Description
The Withdrawal Agreement Bill outlines the terms under which the United Kingdom will exit the European Union, covering key areas such as citizens’ rights, financial settlements, and the future relationship framework. The distinction between preliminary and final reports is relevant here; while initial votes may be influenced by immediate political pressure, final analyses often reflect longer-term economic implications and adjustments in parliamentary relations are commonplace during this process.
Additional Notes
This vote serves as a leading economic measure in the context of Brexit, impacting investor confidence and broader economic forecasts. It is relevant to other reports regarding trade agreements, business sentiment indexes, and currency fluctuations, as these elements are interconnected in the post-Brexit landscape.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. The tone surrounding the agreement is hawkish when concerns about economic stability lead to tighter fiscal policies, usually considered bad for stocks due to higher borrowing costs while enhancing the value of GBP.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise