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Canada CAD

Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI

Impact:
Medium
Source: Markit Economics

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-0.4
| CAD
Actual:
56.6
Forecast: 57
Previous/Revision:
56.2
Period: Feb
What Does It Measure?
The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Canada, focusing specifically on production levels, new orders, inventory changes, supplier delivery times, and employment trends. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction, providing vital insights into economic activity on a national level.
Frequency
The Markit Manufacturing PMI is released monthly, typically on the first business day of the month, providing a preliminary estimate that can be later revised.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders are keenly interested in the PMI because it serves as an early indicator of the manufacturing sector's performance, influencing market sentiment and financial instruments. Positive or higher-than-expected PMI results are generally bullish for the Canadian dollar (CAD) and equities, while disappointing figures can exert downward pressure on these assets.
What Is It Derived From?
The PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, typically involving several hundred firms across various industries. The index is calculated using a diffusion index methodology, where a weighted average of positive, negative, and neutral responses creates a comprehensive view of sector health.
Description
The PMI is released as a preliminary report based on early data gathered from the survey of manufacturers, often producing significant reactions in the financial markets due to its timely nature. This preliminary estimate is subject to revision as more data becomes available in subsequent reports, yet it is generally regarded as a leading indicator that reflects the current state of the manufacturing industry.
Additional Notes
The Markit Manufacturing PMI is considered a leading economic measure as it provides insights into future economic activities by reflecting current production trends. Comparatively, it is closely watched alongside other indicators like the IHS Markit Services PMI, offering a holistic view of the Canadian economy's performance across sectors.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
If the PMI comes in higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. If the PMI comes in lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Mar 01, 2022
56.6
 57
56.2
 -0.4
Feb 01, 2022
56.2
 56
56.5
 0.2
Jan 04, 2022
56.5
 57.8
57.2
 -1.3
Dec 01, 2021
57.2
 56
57.7
 1.2
Nov 01, 2021
57.7
 55
57
 2.7
Oct 01, 2021
57
 56.5
57.2
 0.5
Sep 01, 2021
57.2
 54
56.2
3.2
Aug 03, 2021
56.2
 57
56.5
 -0.8
Jul 02, 2021
56.5
 58
57
 -1.5
Jun 01, 2021
57
 58
57.2
 -1
May 03, 2021
57.2
 56
58.5
 1.2
Apr 01, 2021
58.5
 55
54.8
3.5
Mar 01, 2021
54.8
 53
54.4
 1.8
Feb 01, 2021
54.4
 57
57.9
 -2.6
Jan 04, 2021
57.9
 56
55.8
 1.9
Dec 01, 2020
55.8
 55.3
55.5
 0.5
Nov 02, 2020
55.5
 55.6
56
 -0.1
Oct 01, 2020
56
 55.3
55.1
 0.7
Sep 01, 2020
55.1
 53
52.9
 2.1
Aug 04, 2020
52.9
 48.6
47.8
 4.3
Jul 02, 2020
47.8
 41
40.6
 6.8
Jun 01, 2020
40.6
 31
33
9.6
May 01, 2020
33
 45
46.1
-12
Apr 01, 2020
46.1
 53.3
51.8
-7.2
Mar 02, 2020
51.8
 50.2
50.6
1.6
Feb 03, 2020
50.6
 49.6
50.4
 1
Jan 02, 2020
50.4
 51.9
51.4
-1.5
Dec 02, 2019
51.4
 52.6
51.2
-1.2
Nov 01, 2019
51.2
 51.5
51
 -0.3
Oct 01, 2019
51
 49.8
49.1
 1.2
Sep 03, 2019
49.1
 51
50.2
-1.9
Aug 01, 2019
50.2
 49.5
49.2
 0.7