United States USD

United States Markit Manufacturing PMI Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Markit Economics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.2

USD

Actual:

57.3

Forecast: 57.5

Previous/Revision:

55.5

Period: Feb

What Does It Measure?

The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Final measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector in the United States, with a primary focus on production, employment, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It uses a diffusion index approach, where a reading above 50 signifies expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction, reflecting the prevailing conditions of national economic activity.

Frequency

The Markit Manufacturing PMI Final is released monthly, typically on the first business day of the month, providing final figures that reflect any revisions of previously released preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor this PMI because it serves as a key indicator of manufacturing sector performance, which can impact the overall economy, subsequently influencing key financial markets including currencies, equities, and bonds. Stronger-than-expected results are usually bullish for the U.S. dollar and stocks, while weaker readings may trigger bearish sentiment across these assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The PMI is derived from surveys sent to purchasing managers within the manufacturing industry, capturing their sentiments on business conditions. The survey collects responses regarding new orders, production levels, supplier deliveries, and employment, utilizing a weighted formula to calculate the index.

Description

The PMI is crucial as it reflects real-time economic activity in the manufacturing sector, making it a reliable gauge for economic forecasting and policy decisions. Final reports incorporate adjustments from preliminary readings, which can often lead to modified market sentiment as the data is refined over time.

Additional Notes

The Markit Manufacturing PMI is considered a leading indicator, providing insights into future economic activity before other measures do. It relates closely to other indices such as the ISM Manufacturing Index, and its fluctuations can affect broader economic trends in both the U.S. and global markets.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 01, 2022	57.3	57.5	55.5	-0.2
Feb 01, 2022	55.5	55	57.7	0.5
Jan 03, 2022	57.7	57.8	58.3	-0.1
Dec 01, 2021	58.3	59.1	58.4	-0.8
Nov 01, 2021	58.4	59.2	60.7	-0.8
Oct 01, 2021	60.7	60.5	61.1	0.2
Sep 01, 2021	61.1	61.2	63.4	-0.1
Aug 02, 2021	63.4	63.1	62.1	0.3
Jul 01, 2021	62.1	62.6	62.1	-0.5
Jun 01, 2021	62.1	61.5	60.5	0.6
May 03, 2021	60.5	60.6	59.1	-0.1
Apr 01, 2021	59.1	59	58.6	0.1
Mar 01, 2021	58.6	58.5	59.2	0.1
Feb 01, 2021	59.2	59.1	57.1	0.1
Jan 04, 2021	57.1	56.5	56.7	0.6
Dec 01, 2020	56.7	56.7	53.4
Nov 02, 2020	53.4	53.3	53.2	0.1
Oct 01, 2020	53.2	53.5	53.1	-0.3
Sep 01, 2020	53.1	53.6	50.9	-0.5
Aug 03, 2020	50.9	51.3	49.8	-0.4
Jul 01, 2020	49.8	49.6	39.8	0.2
Jun 01, 2020	39.8	39.8	36.1
May 01, 2020	36.1	36.9	48.5	-0.8
Apr 01, 2020	48.5	49.2	50.7	-0.7
Mar 02, 2020	50.7	50.8	51.9	-0.1
Feb 03, 2020	51.9	51.7	52.4	0.2
Jan 02, 2020	52.4	52.5	52.6	-0.1
Dec 02, 2019	52.6	52.2	51.3	0.4
Nov 01, 2019	51.3	50.9	51.1	0.4
Oct 01, 2019	51.1	51	50.3	0.1
Sep 03, 2019	50.3	49.9	50.4	0.4
Aug 01, 2019	50.4	50	50.6	0.4
Jul 01, 2019	50.6	50.1	50.5	0.5
Jun 03, 2019	50.5	50.6	52.6	-0.1
May 01, 2019	52.6	52.4	52.4	0.2
Apr 01, 2019	52.4	52.5	53	-0.1
Mar 01, 2019	53	53.7	54.9	-0.7
Feb 01, 2019	54.9	54.9	53.8
Jan 02, 2019	53.8	53.9	53.9	-0.1
Dec 03, 2018	55.3	55.4	55.7	-0.1
Nov 01, 2018	55.7	55.9	55.6	-0.2
Oct 01, 2018	55.6	55.6	54.7
Sep 04, 2018	54.7	54.5	55.3	0.2
Aug 01, 2018	55.3	55.5	55.4	-0.2
Jul 02, 2018	55.4	54.6	56.4	0.8
Jun 01, 2018	56.4	56.6	56.5	-0.2
May 01, 2018	56.5	55	55.6	1.5
Apr 02, 2018	55.6	55.7	55.3	-0.1
Mar 01, 2018	55.3	55	55.5	0.3
Feb 01, 2018	55.5	55.5	55.1
Jan 02, 2018	55.1	55	53.9	0.1
Dec 01, 2017	53.9	53.8	54.6	0.1
Nov 01, 2017	54.6	54.5	53.1	0.1
Oct 02, 2017	53.1	53	52.8	0.1
Sep 01, 2017	52.8	52.5	53.3	0.3
Aug 01, 2017	53.3	53.2	52	0.1
Jul 03, 2017	52	52.1	52.7	-0.1
Jun 01, 2017	52.7	52.5	52.8	0.2
May 01, 2017	52.8	52.8	53.3
Apr 03, 2017	53.3	53.5	54.2	-0.2
Mar 01, 2017	54.2	54.4	55	-0.2
Feb 01, 2017	55	55.1	54.3	-0.1
Jan 03, 2017	54.3	54.2	54.1	0.1
Dec 01, 2016	54.1	53.9	53.4	0.2
Nov 01, 2016	53.4	51.7	51.5	1.7
Oct 03, 2016	51.5	51.4	52	0.1
Sep 01, 2016	52	52.1	52.9	-0.1
Aug 01, 2016	52.9	52.9	51.3
Jul 01, 2016	51.3	51.4	50.7	-0.1
Jun 01, 2016	50.7	50.5	50.8	0.2
May 02, 2016	50.8	50.8	51.5
Apr 01, 2016	51.5	51.4	51.3	0.1
Mar 01, 2016	51.3	51	52.4	0.3
Feb 01, 2016	52.4	52.7	51.2	-0.3
Jan 04, 2016	51.2	51.1	52.8	0.1
Dec 01, 2015	52.8	52.6	54.1	0.2
Nov 02, 2015	54.1	54	53.1	0.1
Oct 01, 2015	53.1	53	53	0.1
Sep 01, 2015	53	52.9	53.8	0.1
Aug 03, 2015	53.8	53.8	53.6
Jul 01, 2015	53.6	53.4	54	0.2
Jun 01, 2015	54	53.8	54.1	0.2
May 01, 2015	54.1	54.2	55.7	-0.1