Italy EUR

Italy 15-Year BTP Auction

Impact:
Low
Source: Dipartimento del Tesoro

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
4.06%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
3.72%
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The Italy 15-Year BTP (Buoni del Tesoro Poliennali) auction measures the government’s ability to borrow funds through the sale of 15-year bonds, reflecting investor confidence in Italy's economic stability and fiscal health. This indicator primarily focuses on the demand for government debt instruments, influencing national borrowing costs and overall financial market conditions.
Frequency
The results of the Italy 15-Year BTP auction are released quarterly, typically on a specific day set by the Italian Treasury, with the auction results being final upon publication.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the results of the BTP auction as they provide crucial insights into demand for Italian bonds, which can directly affect yields and, consequently, the country's borrowing costs. A successful auction with strong demand can strengthen the euro and enhance market sentiment for Italian equities, while a weak auction may lead to increased concerns about fiscal stability and bearish implications for both the currency and stocks.
What Is It Derived From?
The auction results are derived from a competitive bidding process among institutional investors, banks, and financial entities that submit bids for the bonds on auction day. The treasury calculates the accepted bids based on the weighted average of the yields offered and the overall demand, determining the amount of bonds sold and the interest rates they will need to pay.
Description
The preliminary auction results are released shortly after the auction concludes and showcase the total amount raised, along with the average yield. These initial figures reflect early demand but are later finalized with more comprehensive reports that may include details on bidder types and auction trends.
Additional Notes
The Italy 15-Year BTP auction serves as a coincident economic indicator, gauging current investor sentiment towards Italian public debt and the broader economic environment. It is closely watched in relation to other bond markets and can impact perceptions of fiscal risk compared to other European nations.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower borrowing costs or reduced risk appetite, is usually good for the EUR but bad for Stocks due to increased concerns over fiscal health.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Apr 11, 2025
4.06%
3.72%
Mar 13, 2025
3.72%
3.57%
Jan 30, 2025
3.57%
3.19%
Dec 12, 2024
3.19%
3.93%
Nov 13, 2024
3.93%
3.88%
Oct 11, 2024
3.88%
4.27%
Jun 13, 2024
4.27%
4.16%
Apr 11, 2024
4.16%
3.85%
Mar 13, 2024
3.85%
4.84%
Nov 10, 2023
4.84%
4.37%
Jul 13, 2023
4.37%
4.28%
Apr 13, 2023
4.42%
4.28%
Feb 14, 2023
4.28%
4.82%
Oct 13, 2022
4.82%
3.45%
Jul 13, 2022
3.45%
3.31%
Mar 11, 2022
2.11%
1.19%
Jul 13, 2021
1.19%
1.26%
Apr 13, 2021
1.26%
1.05%
Nov 12, 2020
1.05%
1.91%
Jun 11, 2020
1.91%
2.06%
Apr 09, 2020
2.06%
2.87%
Jun 13, 2019
2.87%
3%
Apr 11, 2019
3%
3.66%
Oct 11, 2018
3.66%
3.04%
Jul 12, 2018
3.04%
2.38%
May 11, 2018
2.38%
2.45%
Mar 13, 2018
2.45%
2.38%
Nov 13, 2017
2.38%
2.77%
Jul 13, 2017
2.77%
2.87%
Mar 13, 2017
2.87%
1.77%
Oct 13, 2016
1.77%
1.57%
Jul 13, 2016
1.57%
1.99%
May 12, 2016
1.99%
1.84%
Mar 11, 2016
1.84%
2.03%