Japan JPY

Japan Leading Composite Index Prel

Impact:
Low
Source: Cabinet Office, Japan

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
1
Actual:
107.2
Forecast: 106.2
Previous/Revision:
106.2
Period: Jun
What Does It Measure?
The Japan Leading Composite Index (Preliminary) measures the future economic activity in Japan, focusing on various components such as business orders, stock prices, and consumer expectations. It assesses key economic areas including production, employment, and overall business sentiment, aiming to predict turning points in economic growth.
Frequency
The Leading Composite Index is released monthly and typically includes preliminary figures that are subjected to later revisions, with publication occurring on the first business day of each month.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the Leading Composite Index because it provides an early signal of economic trends that can impact financial markets. Strong performance, especially if above expectations, can strengthen the Japanese Yen and boost equities, while weaker readings may exert downward pressure on these assets.
What Is It Derived From?
The index is derived from a composite of ten leading indicators that include data from business surveys, performance metrics from stock markets, and consumer confidence levels. This calculation employs diffusion indices and weighting methodologies to reflect varied economic metrics qualitative and quantitative assessments.
Description
Preliminary reports of the Japan Leading Composite Index are based on early estimates, indicating short-term economic trends, while final reports provide more accurate evaluations released later. The index compares current figures against historical performance primarily on a year-over-year basis, accommodating seasonal fluctuations and focusing on long-term structural changes in the economy.
Additional Notes
The Japan Leading Composite Index serves as a leading economic indicator, offering insights into future economic activity and impending changes in the prevailing economic landscape. It is often viewed in relation to coincident indicators such as GDP growth and Unemployment rates, thus providing a broader context for economic analysis and forecasts.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the JPY but bad for Stocks due to lower borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Aug 06, 2015
107.2
 106.2
106.2
 1
Jul 06, 2015
106.2
106.4
Jun 05, 2015
107.2
 105.88
106
 1.32
May 12, 2015
105.5
 105.5
104.7