United States USD

United States ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-1.7

USD

Actual:

51.3

Forecast: 53

Previous/Revision:

Period: Mar

What Does It Measure?

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index measures the employment trends within the non-manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy, reflecting the employment dynamics of services-related industries. Key areas assessed include job creation, workforce expansions or contractions, and overall labor market health, with values above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 signifying contraction.

Frequency

The report is released monthly as a preliminary estimate on the first business day of the month following the reporting period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index closely due to its direct correlation with economic growth and labor market conditions, influencing financial markets and investment decisions. Stronger-than-expected results typically lead to a bullish sentiment for the U.S. dollar and equities, while weaker data can have bearish implications.

What Is It Derived From?

This index is derived from a survey of purchasing and supply chain managers in the non-manufacturing sector, where respondents provide insights on employment trends within their organizations. The index is calculated using diffusion indices, where a positive reading suggests an increase in employment and a negative reading indicates a decrease, applying specific weighting to survey responses.

Description

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index provides critical insights into the labor market trends in the service-oriented sectors of the economy, representing a significant portion of total employment. The preliminary report typically garners immediate market attention because it sheds light on the current economic conditions, which are highly responsive to changes in employment figures.

Additional Notes

This indicator serves as a coincident economic measure, reflecting current economic conditions rather than predicting future ones. It is often compared to the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index, and together, they help chart broader employment trends across different sectors of the economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. A hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates due to robust employment growth is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 05, 2023	51.3	53	54	-1.7
Mar 03, 2023	54	50.1	50	3.9
Feb 03, 2023	50	50	49.4
Jan 06, 2023	49.8	50	51.5	-0.2
Dec 05, 2022	51.5	49.5	49.1	2
Nov 03, 2022	49.1	51	53	-1.9
Oct 05, 2022	53	50.4	50.2	2.6
Sep 06, 2022	50.2	50.4	49.1	-0.2
Aug 03, 2022	49.1	49	47.4	0.1
Jul 06, 2022	47.4	50.6	50.2	-3.2
Jun 03, 2022	50.2	49	49.5	1.2
May 04, 2022	49.5	54.1	54	-4.6
Apr 05, 2022	54	50	48.5	4
Mar 03, 2022	48.5	53	52.3	-4.5
Feb 03, 2022	52.3	54	54.7	-1.7
Jan 06, 2022	54.9	55	56.5	-0.1
Dec 03, 2021	56.5	52	51.6	4.5
Nov 03, 2021	51.6	52	53	-0.4
Oct 05, 2021	53	52	53.7	1
Sep 03, 2021	53.7		53.8
Aug 04, 2021	53.8	49.4	49.3	4.4
Jul 06, 2021	49.3	54	55.3	-4.7
Jun 03, 2021	55.3	58.8	58.8	-3.5
May 05, 2021	58.8	57.6	57.2	1.2
Apr 05, 2021	57.2	54	52.7	3.2
Mar 03, 2021	52.7	54.4	55.2	-1.7
Feb 03, 2021	55.2	48	48.7	7.2
Jan 07, 2021	48.2	49.5	51.5	-1.3
Dec 03, 2020	51.5	50	50.1	1.5
Nov 04, 2020	50.1	52	51.8	-1.9
Oct 05, 2020	51.8	49	47.9	2.8
Sep 03, 2020	47.9	42	42.1	5.9
Aug 05, 2020	42.1	47.2	43.1	-5.1
Jul 06, 2020	43.1	42	31.8	1.1
Jun 03, 2020	31.8	22	30	9.8
May 05, 2020	30		47
Apr 03, 2020	47		55.6
Mar 04, 2020	55.6	52.9	53.1	2.7
Feb 05, 2020	53.1	54.6	54.8	-1.5
Jan 07, 2020	55.2	54.2	55.5	1
Dec 04, 2019	55.5	53.4	53.7	2.1
Nov 05, 2019	53.7	50.9	50.4	2.8
Oct 03, 2019	50.4	52.9	53.1	-2.5
Sep 05, 2019	53.1	55.9	56.2	-2.8
Aug 05, 2019	56.2	54.4	55	1.8
Jul 03, 2019	55	56.9	58.1	-1.9
Jun 05, 2019	58.1	52	53.7	6.1
May 03, 2019	53.7	55.1	55.9	-1.4
Apr 03, 2019	55.9		55.2
Mar 05, 2019	55.2		57.8
Feb 05, 2019	57.8		56.6
Jan 07, 2019	56.3		58.4
Dec 06, 2018	58.4		59.7
Nov 05, 2018	59.7		62.4
Oct 03, 2018	62.4		56.7
Sep 06, 2018	56.7		56.1
Aug 03, 2018	56.1		53.6
Jul 05, 2018	53.6		54.1
Jun 05, 2018	54.1		53.6
May 03, 2018	53.6		56.6
Apr 04, 2018	56.6		55
Mar 05, 2018	55		61.6
Feb 05, 2018	61.6		56.3
Jan 05, 2018	56.3		55.3
Dec 05, 2017	55.3		57.5
Nov 03, 2017	57.5		56.8
Oct 04, 2017	56.8		56.2
Sep 06, 2017	56.2		53.6
Aug 03, 2017	53.6	56.5	55.8	-2.9
Jul 06, 2017	55.8		57.8
Jun 05, 2017	57.8		51.4
May 03, 2017	51.4		51.6
Apr 05, 2017	51.6		55.2
Mar 03, 2017	55.2		54.7
Feb 03, 2017	54.7		52.7
Jan 05, 2017	53.8		58.2
Dec 05, 2016	58.2		53.1
Nov 03, 2016	53.1		57.2
Oct 05, 2016	57.2		50.7
Sep 06, 2016	50.7		51.4
Aug 03, 2016	51.4		52.7
Jul 06, 2016	52.7		49.7
Jun 03, 2016	49.7		53
May 04, 2016	53		50.3
Apr 05, 2016	50.3		49.7
Mar 03, 2016	49.7		52.1
Feb 03, 2016	52.1		56.3
Jan 06, 2016	55.7		55
Dec 03, 2015	55		59.2
Oct 05, 2015	58.3		56
Sep 03, 2015	56		59.6
Aug 05, 2015	59.6		52.7
Jul 06, 2015	52.7		55.3
Jun 03, 2015	55.3		56.7
May 05, 2015	56.7		56.6