United States USD

United States Core PCE Prices QoQ Final

Impact:
High
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-0.1%
| USD
Actual:
2.6%
Forecast: 2.7%
Previous/Revision:
2.2%
Period: Q4

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 3.4%
Period: Q1
What Does It Measure?
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices Index measures the price changes in goods and services consumed by households, excluding food and energy prices, which are subject to volatility. This indicator primarily focuses on assessing inflationary trends and consumer spending power, providing insights into price stability, purchasing behaviors, and overall economic health in the United States.
Frequency
The Core PCE Prices Index is released on a monthly basis, with the report typically published on the last business day of the month and includes final figures which provide the most accurate representation of data after preliminary estimates.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor the Core PCE Prices Index closely as it serves as a key indicator of inflation, influencing U.S. monetary policy and affecting financial markets; higher-than-expected inflation can lead to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, impacting currencies, stocks, and bonds. As a reliable measure for economic forecasts, fluctuations in this index can significantly affect market sentiment and investment strategies.
What Is It Derived From?
The Core PCE Prices Index is calculated based on an index of the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, drawn from a comprehensive survey of household expenditure components. This index employs various methodologies, including adjustments for seasonal variations, and utilizes data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Description
The Core PCE Prices Index is particularly regarded for its focus on underlying inflation trends, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, making it a preferred gauge of long-term inflationary pressures in the economy. The final report quantifies price changes over time and serves as a vital tool for policy makers, analysts, and investors in assessing economic conditions.
Additional Notes
The Core PCE Prices Index functions as a lagging economic indicator since it reflects past consumer spending habits and price movements. It is often compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and other inflation measures, and is considered a coincident indicator related to the overall economic activity in the U.S.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
If the actual Core PCE Prices Index results are higher than expected, this may be considered bullish for the U.S. Dollar and bearish for stocks; conversely, lower-than-expected results would likely be bearish for the U.S. Dollar and bullish for stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Mar 27, 2025
2.6%
 2.7%
2.2%
 -0.1%
Dec 19, 2024
2.2%
 2.1%
2.8%
 0.1%
Sep 26, 2024
2.8%
 2.8%
3.7%
Jun 27, 2024
3.7%
 3.6%
2%
 0.1%
Mar 28, 2024
2%
 2.1%
2%
 -0.1%
Dec 21, 2023
2%
 2.3%
3.7%
-0.3%
Sep 28, 2023
3.7%
 3.7%
5%
Jun 29, 2023
4.9%
 5%
4.4%
 -0.1%
Mar 30, 2023
4.4%
 4.3%
4.7%
0.1%
Dec 22, 2022
4.7%
 4.6%
4.7%
0.1%
Sep 29, 2022
4.7%
 4.4%
5.6%
0.3%
Jun 29, 2022
5.2%
 5.1%
5%
0.1%
Mar 30, 2022
5%
 5%
4.6%
Dec 22, 2021
4.6%
 4.5%
6.1%
 0.1%
Sep 30, 2021
6.1%
 6.1%
2.7%
Jun 24, 2021
2.5%
 2.5%
1.3%
Mar 25, 2021
1.3%
 1.4%
3.4%
 -0.1%
Dec 22, 2020
3.4%
 3.5%
-0.8%
 -0.1%
Sep 30, 2020
-0.8%
 -1%
1.6%
0.2%
Jun 25, 2020
1.7%
 1.6%
1.3%
 0.1%
Mar 26, 2020
1.3%
 1.2%
2.1%
0.1%
Dec 20, 2019
2.1%
 2.1%
1.9%
Sep 26, 2019
1.9%
 1.7%
1.1%
0.2%
Jun 27, 2019
1.2%
 1%
1.8%
0.2%
Mar 28, 2019
1.8%
 1.7%
1.6%
0.1%
Dec 21, 2018
1.6%
 1.5%
2.1%
0.1%
Sep 27, 2018
2.1%
 2%
2.2%
0.1%
Jun 28, 2018
2.3%
 2.3%
1.9%
Mar 28, 2018
1.9%
 1.9%
1.3%
Dec 21, 2017
1.3%
 1.4%
0.9%
 -0.1%
Sep 28, 2017
0.9%
 0.9%
1.8%
Jun 29, 2017
2%
 2.1%
1.3%
-0.1%
Mar 30, 2017
1.3%
 1.2%
1.3%
0.1%
Dec 22, 2016
1.7%
 1.7%
1.5%
Sep 29, 2016
1.8%
 1.8%
2.1%
Jun 28, 2016
2%
 2.1%
1.3%
-0.1%
Mar 25, 2016
1.3%
 1.3%
1.4%
Dec 22, 2015
1.4%
 1.3%
1.9%
0.1%
Sep 25, 2015
1.9%
 1.8%
1%
0.1%
Jun 24, 2015
0.8%
 0.8%
1.1%