United States USD

United States Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Markit Economics

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

2.2

USD

Actual:

58.5

Forecast: 56.3

Previous/Revision:

57.3

Period: Mar

What Does It Measure?

The United States Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector by surveying purchasing managers across the country. It focuses on assessing components such as output, new orders, employment, and supplier delivery times, providing insight into production trends and overall economic activity within the manufacturing industry.

Frequency

This report is released on a monthly basis and typically published on the final business day of the month as a preliminary estimate, which may be revised in subsequent releases.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Manufacturing PMI Flash because it serves as a leading indicator of economic performance, reflecting the manufacturing sector's growth or contraction. Stronger-than-expected readings can positively influence currencies and equities, while disappointing results may lead to bearish sentiments in financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The Manufacturing PMI Flash is derived from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, utilizing a diffusion index methodology whereby responses are weighted according to the size of the respondent's company. The index is calculated based on the proportion of participants reporting improved, unchanged, or deteriorating conditions, with values above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction.

Description

The Manufacturing PMI Flash provides timely insights into the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector, specifically capturing short-term trends before the final PMI is released. As a preliminary indicator, it is highly influential, often leading to immediate market reactions based on its early assessment of manufacturing activity.

Additional Notes

As a leading indicator, the Manufacturing PMI Flash is instrumental in forecasting economic trends and is often compared with other indicators like Industrial Production and the ISM Manufacturing Index. It plays a critical role in the broader context of economic analysis, helping to gauge the overall pace of economic growth and its implications for monetary policy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 24, 2022	58.5	56.3	57.3	2.2
Feb 22, 2022	57.5	56	55.5	1.5
Jan 24, 2022	55	56.7	57.7	-1.7
Dec 16, 2021	57.8	58.5	58.3	-0.7
Nov 23, 2021	59.1	59	58.4	0.1
Oct 22, 2021	59.2	60.3	60.7	-1.1
Sep 23, 2021	60.5	61.5	61.1	-1
Aug 23, 2021	61.2	62.5	63.4	-1.3
Jul 23, 2021	63.1	62	62.1	1.1
Jun 23, 2021	62.6	61.5	62.1	1.1
May 21, 2021	61.5	60.2	60.5	1.3
Apr 23, 2021	60.6	60.5	59.1	0.1
Mar 24, 2021	59	59.3	58.6	-0.3
Feb 19, 2021	58.5	58.5	59.2
Jan 22, 2021	59.1	56.5	57.1	2.6
Dec 16, 2020	56.5	55.7	56.7	0.8
Nov 23, 2020	56.7	53	53.4	3.7
Oct 23, 2020	53.3	53.4	53.2	-0.1
Sep 23, 2020	53.5	53.1	53.1	0.4
Aug 21, 2020	53.6	51.9	50.9	1.7
Jul 24, 2020	51.3	51.5	49.8	-0.2
Jun 23, 2020	49.6	48	39.8	1.6
May 21, 2020	39.8	38	36.1	1.8
Apr 23, 2020	36.9	38	48.5	-1.1
Mar 24, 2020	49.2	42.8	50.7	6.4
Feb 21, 2020	50.8	51.5	51.9	-0.7
Jan 24, 2020	51.7	52.5	52.4	-0.8
Dec 16, 2019	52.5	52.5	52.6
Nov 22, 2019	52.2	51.5	51.3	0.7
Oct 24, 2019	51.5	50.7	51.1	0.8
Sep 23, 2019	51	51	50.3
Aug 22, 2019	49.9	50.5	50.4	-0.6
Jul 24, 2019	50	50	50.6
Jun 21, 2019	50.1	50.1	50.5
May 23, 2019	50.6	52.5	52.6	-1.9
Apr 18, 2019	52.4	52.8	52.4	-0.4
Mar 22, 2019	52.5	53.6	53	-1.1
Feb 21, 2019	53.7	54.7	54.9	-1
Jan 24, 2019	54.9	53.5	53.8	1.4
Dec 14, 2018	53.9	55.1	55.3	-1.2
Nov 23, 2018	55.4	55.7	55.7	-0.3
Oct 24, 2018	55.9	55.5	55.6	0.4
Sep 21, 2018	55.6	55	54.7	0.6
Aug 23, 2018	54.5	55	55.3	-0.5
Jul 24, 2018	55.5	55.4	55.4	0.1
Jun 22, 2018	54.6	56.5	56.4	-1.9
May 23, 2018	56.6	56.5	56.5	0.1
Apr 23, 2018	56.5	55	55.6	1.5
Mar 22, 2018	55.7	55.7	55.3
Feb 21, 2018	55.9	55.9	55.5
Jan 24, 2018	55.5	55.5	55.1
Dec 14, 2017	55	56.1	53.9	-1.1
Nov 24, 2017	53.8	54.8	54.6	-1
Oct 24, 2017	54.5	54.5	54.5
Sep 22, 2017	53	53	52.8
Aug 23, 2017	52.5	53.3	53.3	-0.8
Jul 24, 2017	53.2	52.1	52	1.1
Jun 23, 2017	52.1	53	52.7	-0.9
May 23, 2017	52.5	53	52.8	-0.5
Apr 21, 2017	52.8	53.5	53.3	-0.7
Mar 24, 2017	53.4	54.8	54.2	-1.4
Feb 21, 2017	54.3	55.3	55	-1
Jan 24, 2017	55.1	54.5	54.3	0.6
Dec 15, 2016	54.2	54.2	54.1
Nov 23, 2016	53.9	53.4	53.4	0.5
Oct 24, 2016	53.2	51.5	51.5	1.7
Sep 23, 2016	51.4	51.9	52	-0.5
Aug 23, 2016	52.1	52.7	52.9	-0.6
Jul 22, 2016	52.9	51.6	51.3	1.3
Jun 23, 2016	51.4	50.8	50.7	0.6
May 23, 2016	50.5	51	50.8	-0.5
Apr 22, 2016	50.8	52	51.5	-1.2
Mar 22, 2016	51.4	51.8	51.3	-0.4
Feb 22, 2016	51	52.3	52.4	-1.3
Jan 22, 2016	52.7	51.1	51.2	1.6
Dec 16, 2015	51.3	52.6	52.8	-1.3
Nov 23, 2015	52.6	53.9	54.1	-1.3
Oct 23, 2015	54	52.8	53.1	1.2
Sep 23, 2015	53	53	53
Aug 21, 2015	52.9	54	53.8	-1.1
Jul 24, 2015	53.8	53.6	53.6	0.2
Jun 23, 2015	53.4	54.2	54	-0.8
May 21, 2015	53.8	54.5	54.1	-0.7