United States USD

United States Markit Composite PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Markit Economics

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

3.1

USD

Actual:

58.5

Forecast: 55.4

Previous/Revision:

55.9

Period: Mar

What Does It Measure?

The Markit Composite PMI Flash measures the overall economic performance of the United States by combining the Manufacturing and Services PMI indices, which assess business activity, employment, and new orders across these sectors. It primarily focuses on output, employment levels, and price changes, reflecting the health of both manufacturing and service industries within the national economy.

Frequency

This indicator is released monthly, typically published on the first business day of the month following the reporting period, and it is considered a preliminary estimate that may be revised later.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Markit Composite PMI Flash due to its ability to provide timely insight into economic trends, which directly impacts financial markets, particularly currencies like the USD, and equities. A higher-than-expected reading may signal economic growth and bullish sentiment, while a weaker result can lead to bearish market reactions.

What Is It Derived From?

The PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers at around 400 companies in the manufacturing and services sectors, utilizing a diffusion index methodology where responses indicate whether business conditions have improved, worsened, or remained the same. The data collected is then processed to create a composite index that reflects the overall sentiment in both key areas of the economy.

Description

The Markit Composite PMI Flash serves as a leading indicator of economic activity, allowing analysts and traders to gauge future growth potential. This indicator captures both immediate and short-term economic shifts, often signaling changes in market trends before they become evident in other economic reports.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic measure, the Markit Composite PMI Flash is often viewed in conjunction with other indices such as the ISM PMI or employment reports to provide a comprehensive view of economic conditions. Its implications extend beyond national borders, as global investors consider the U.S. economic landscape when making investment decisions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 24, 2022	58.5	55.4	55.9	3.1
Feb 22, 2022	56	51.9	51.1	4.1
Jan 24, 2022	50.8	56.7	57	-5.9
Dec 16, 2021	56.9	55.7	57.2	1.2
Nov 23, 2021	56.5	58.2	57.6	-1.7
Oct 22, 2021	57.3	54	55	3.3
Sep 23, 2021	54.5	54.5	55.4
Aug 23, 2021	55.4	58.3	59.9	-2.9
Jul 23, 2021	59.7	63	63.7	-3.3
Jun 23, 2021	63.9	67	68.7	-3.1
May 21, 2021	68.1	63	63.5	5.1
Apr 23, 2021	62.2	60.5	59.7	1.7
Mar 24, 2021	59.1	59.9	59.5	-0.8
Feb 19, 2021	58.8	56.6	58.7	2.2
Jan 22, 2021	58	55.9	55.3	2.1
Dec 16, 2020	55.7	57	58.6	-1.3
Nov 23, 2020	57.9	54.5	56.3	3.4
Oct 23, 2020	55.5	54	54.3	1.5
Sep 23, 2020	54.4	53	54.6	1.4
Aug 21, 2020	54.7	51.7	50.3	3
Jul 24, 2020	50	50.8	47.9	-0.8
Jun 23, 2020	46.8	44	37	2.8
May 21, 2020	36.4	32.5	27	3.9
Apr 23, 2020	27.4	34.2	40.9	-6.8
Mar 24, 2020	40.5	40.5	49.6
Feb 21, 2020	49.6	49.6	53.3
Jan 24, 2020	53.1	53.1	52.7
Dec 16, 2019	52.2	51.9	52	0.3
Nov 22, 2019	51.9	51.9	50.9
Oct 24, 2019	51.2	51.6	51	-0.4
Sep 23, 2019	51	51	50.7
Aug 22, 2019	50.9	50.9	52.6
Jul 24, 2019	51.6	51.6	51.5
Jun 21, 2019	50.6	51.4	50.9	-0.8
May 23, 2019	50.9	50.9	53
Apr 18, 2019	52.8	54	54.6	-1.2
Mar 22, 2019	54.3	54.3	55.5
Feb 21, 2019	55.8	55.8	54.4
Jan 24, 2019	54.5	54.5	54.4
Dec 14, 2018	53.6	54.7	54.7	-1.1
Nov 23, 2018	54.4	56	54.9	-1.6
Oct 24, 2018	54.8	54.8	53.9
Sep 21, 2018	53.4	53.4	54.7
Aug 23, 2018	55	55.8	55.7	-0.8
Jul 24, 2018	55.9	55.9	56.2
Jun 22, 2018	56	56	56.6
May 23, 2018	55.7	54.8	54.9	0.9
Apr 23, 2018	54.8	55.3	54.2	-0.5
Mar 22, 2018	54.3	55.7	55.8	-1.4
Feb 21, 2018	55.9	55.5	53.8	0.4
Jan 24, 2018	53.8	53.9	54.1	-0.1
Dec 14, 2017	53	53.7	54.5	-0.7
Nov 24, 2017	54.6	55.3	55.2	-0.7
Oct 24, 2017	55.7	54.3	54.8	1.4
Sep 22, 2017	54.6	53.8	55.3	0.8
Aug 23, 2017	56	53.6	54.6	2.4
Jul 24, 2017	54.2	54.1	53.9	0.1
Jun 23, 2017	53	53.8	53.6	-0.8
May 23, 2017	53.9	53.2	53.2	0.7
Apr 21, 2017	52.7	52.79	53	-0.09
Mar 24, 2017	53.2	53.5	54.1	-0.3
Feb 21, 2017	54.3	54	55.8	0.3
Jan 26, 2017	55.4	54	54.1	1.4
Dec 19, 2016	53.7	54.81	54.9	-1.11
Nov 25, 2016	54.9	52.5	54.9	2.4
Oct 26, 2016	54.9	52.6	52.3	2.3
Sep 27, 2016	52	52	51.5
Aug 25, 2016	51.5	51.7	51.8	-0.2
Jul 26, 2016	51.5	51.3	51.2	0.2
Jun 27, 2016	51.2	50.9	50.9	0.3
May 25, 2016	50.8	53.1	52.4	-2.3
Apr 26, 2016	51.7	52.3	51.3	-0.6
Mar 24, 2016	51.1	50.9	50	0.2
Feb 24, 2016	50.1	53.8	53.2	-3.7
Jan 26, 2016	53.7	54.4	54	-0.7
Dec 18, 2015	53.5	56.3	55.9	-2.8
Nov 25, 2015	56.1	55.7	55	0.4
Oct 27, 2015	54.5	55.56	55	-1.06
Sep 25, 2015	55.3	55	55.7	0.3
Aug 25, 2015	55	55	55.7
Jul 28, 2015	55.2	56.02	54.6	-0.82
Jun 25, 2015	54.6	58	56	-3.4
May 26, 2015	56.1	56	57	0.1