Japan JPY

Japan Tankan Small Manufacturers Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Bank of Japan

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

Actual:

Forecast: -1

Previous/Revision:

Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 1

Period: Q2

What Does It Measure?

The Japan Tankan Small Manufacturers Index measures the economic sentiment among small manufacturing firms in Japan, focusing on their assessments of current business conditions and expectations for future activity. It primarily assesses key areas such as production levels, employment, and overall business confidence, and is a national indicator indicative of economic health in the manufacturing sector.

Frequency

The Tankan survey is released quarterly, typically on the first business day of April, July, October, and January, with results reflecting both preliminary estimates and final figures.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Tankan Small Manufacturers Index because it provides valuable insights into the economic climate and business sentiment, which can influence financial markets significantly. Strong performance and positive sentiment often lead to bullish trends in the Japanese yen and equities, while weaker results may result in bearish moves for currencies and stocks.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a quarterly survey conducted by the Bank of Japan, which gathers responses from approximately 1,000 small manufacturing firms across various industries. This survey utilizes a diffusion index methodology to gauge sentiment, where respondents indicate whether conditions are "improving," "unchanged," or "deteriorating," with values above zero indicating expansion and below indicating contraction.

Description

The Tankan Small Manufacturers Index provides a snapshot of the confidence levels within Japan's small manufacturing sector, crucial for understanding the broader economic landscape. Unlike final reports, preliminary data can trigger immediate market reactions due to its timely release; however, the final data is typically viewed as more accurate and may adjust market sentiment post-release.

Additional Notes

The Tankan Index is often considered a coincident indicator, as it reflects current business conditions that tightly correlate with real economic activity. It can also be compared with similar indices, such as the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index, to gauge relative confidence and economic trends within different segments of the manufacturing sector.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for JPY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for JPY, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the JPY but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 31, 2025	2	-1	1	3
Dec 12, 2024	1	-2	0	3
Sep 30, 2024	0	1	-1	-1
Jun 30, 2024	-1	-1	-1
Mar 31, 2024	-1	-2	2	1
Dec 12, 2023	1	-4	-5	5
Oct 01, 2023	-5	-4	-5	-1
Jul 02, 2023	-5	-4	-6	-1
Apr 02, 2023	-6	-6	-2
Dec 13, 2022	-2	-6	-4	4
Oct 02, 2022	-4	-3	-4	-1
Jun 30, 2022	-4	-6	-4	2
Mar 31, 2022	-4	-7	-1	3
Dec 12, 2021	-1	-3	-3	2
Sep 30, 2021	-3	-9	-7	6
Jun 30, 2021	-7	-5	-13	-2
Mar 31, 2021	-13	-20	-27	7
Dec 13, 2020	-27	-36	-44	9
Sep 30, 2020	-44	-38	-45	-6
Jun 30, 2020	-45	-39	-15	-6
Mar 31, 2020	-15	-17	-9	2
Dec 12, 2019	-9	-8	-4	-1
Sep 30, 2019	-4	-6	-1	2
Jun 30, 2019	-1	2	6	-3
Mar 31, 2019	6	10	14	-4
Dec 13, 2018	14	13	14	1
Sep 30, 2018	14	13	14	1
Jul 01, 2018	14	13	15	1
Apr 01, 2018	15	14	15	1
Jul 02, 2017	7	7	5
Apr 02, 2017	5	3	1	2
Jun 30, 2016	-5	-6	-4	1
Mar 31, 2016	-4	-3	0	-1