United States USD

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.05

USD

Actual:

-0.25

Forecast: -0.2

Previous/Revision:

0.03

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) measures the overall economic activity and its relationship to long-term trends in growth for the United States. It assesses key areas such as production, employment, inflation, and personal consumption through 85 different economic indicators, with a composite index calculated to reflect the national economy's performance.

Frequency

The CFNAI is released on a monthly basis, with data typically available in the last week of each month; the figures presented are usually preliminary and are subject to later revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the CFNAI as it provides critical insights into economic trends that can influence market behavior, including shifts in GDP growth rates. Stronger-than-expected readings often boost confidence in the economy, leading to bullish effects on currencies like the USD and stock markets, whereas weaker results can have the opposite impact.

What Is It Derived From?

The CFNAI is derived from a weighted average of 85 diverse economic indicators, which include measures of income, employment, production, and sales. These data points are collected from various sources, including government reports and surveys, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the economy.

Description

The CFNAI reports values that indicate whether economic activity is above or below a historic average, with values above zero suggesting expansion and values below zero indicating contraction. This index serves as a composite measure that helps visualize the current state of the U.S. economy relative to its historical trends, thus offering vital information for economic forecasting and investment decisions.

Additional Notes

The CFNAI is considered a coincident economic indicator, meaning it reflects current economic conditions rather than forecasting future movements. It is often compared with other indicators, such as the ISM Manufacturing Index, to assess broader economic trends and can influence market reactions when released alongside other key economic data.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 22, 2025	-0.25	-0.2	0.03	-0.05
Apr 24, 2025	-0.03	0.11	0.24	-0.14
Mar 24, 2025	0.18	0.08	-0.08	0.1
Feb 24, 2025	-0.03	0.21	0.18	-0.24
Jan 27, 2025	0.15	0.1	-0.01	0.05
Dec 23, 2024	-0.12	-0.1	-0.5	-0.02
Nov 25, 2024	-0.4	-0.2	-0.27	-0.2
Oct 24, 2024	-0.28	0.2	-0.01	-0.48
Sep 23, 2024	0.12	-0.2	-0.42	0.32
Aug 22, 2024	-0.34	0.03	-0.09	-0.37
Jul 22, 2024	0.05	-0.09	0.23	0.14
Jun 25, 2024	0.18	-0.4	-0.26	0.58
May 23, 2024	-0.23	0.16	-0.04	-0.39
Apr 22, 2024	0.15	0.09	0.09	0.06
Mar 25, 2024	0.05	-0.9	-0.54	0.95
Feb 22, 2024	-0.3	-0.19	0.02	-0.11
Jan 25, 2024	-0.15	0.1	0.01	-0.25
Dec 26, 2023	0.03	-0.3	-0.66	0.33
Nov 21, 2023	-0.49	-0.01	-0.02	-0.48
Oct 23, 2023	0.02	0.05	-0.22	-0.03
Sep 25, 2023	-0.16	0.15	0.07	-0.31
Aug 24, 2023	0.12	-0.4	-0.33	0.52
Jul 24, 2023	-0.32	0.03	-0.28	-0.35
Jun 22, 2023	-0.15	0.15	0.14	-0.3
May 25, 2023	0.07	0.2	-0.37	-0.13
Apr 24, 2023	-0.19	-0.02	-0.19	-0.17
Mar 23, 2023	-0.19	0.26	0.23	-0.45
Feb 23, 2023	0.23	-0.25	-0.46	0.48
Jan 26, 2023	-0.51	-0.18	-0.05	-0.33
Jan 26, 2023	-0.49	0.1	-0.51	-0.59
Nov 21, 2022	-0.05	0.1	0.17	-0.15
Oct 24, 2022	0.1	0.12	0.1	-0.02
Sep 26, 2022	0	0.24	0.29	-0.24
Aug 22, 2022	0.27	-0.02	-0.25	0.29
Jul 25, 2022	-0.19	0.05	-0.19	-0.24
Jun 21, 2022	0.01	0.32	0.4	-0.31
May 23, 2022	0.47	0.35	0.36	0.12
Apr 25, 2022	0.44	0.4	0.54	0.04
Mar 21, 2022	0.51	0.75	0.59	-0.24
Feb 24, 2022	0.69	0.15	0.07	0.54
Jan 24, 2022	-0.15	0.49	0.44	-0.64
Dec 22, 2021	0.37	0.51	0.75	-0.14
Nov 22, 2021	0.76	0.9	-0.18	-0.14
Oct 25, 2021	-0.13	0.18	0.05	-0.31
Sep 23, 2021	0.29		0.75
Aug 23, 2021	0.53	0.1	-0.01	0.43
Jul 22, 2021	0.09	0.45	0.26	-0.36
Jun 21, 2021	0.29	0.15	-0.09	0.14
May 24, 2021	0.24	2.5	1.71	-2.26
Apr 22, 2021	1.71	0.97	-1.2	0.74
Mar 22, 2021	-1.09	0.78	0.75	-1.87
Feb 22, 2021	0.66	0.39	0.41	0.27
Jan 25, 2021	0.52	0.1	0.31	0.42
Dec 21, 2020	0.27	0.4	1.01	-0.13
Nov 23, 2020	0.83	0.1	0.32	0.73
Oct 26, 2020	0.27	0.39	1.11	-0.12
Sep 21, 2020	0.79	1.95	2.54	-1.16
Aug 24, 2020	1.18	2.73	5.33	-1.55
Jul 21, 2020	4.11	3.2	3.5	0.91
Jun 22, 2020	2.61	-4	-17.89	6.61
May 26, 2020	-16.74	-3	-4.97	-13.74
Apr 20, 2020	-4.19	-4	0.06	-0.19
Mar 23, 2020	0.16	-0.4	-0.33	0.56
Feb 24, 2020	-0.25	-0.92	-0.51	0.67
Jan 22, 2020	-0.35	-0.3	0.41	-0.05
Dec 23, 2019	0.56	-0.09	-0.76	0.65
Nov 25, 2019	-0.71	-0.43	-0.45	-0.28
Oct 28, 2019	-0.45	-0.37	0.15	-0.08
Sep 23, 2019	0.1	-0.35	-0.41	0.45
Aug 26, 2019	-0.36	0.11	0.03	-0.47
Jul 22, 2019	-0.02	0.1	-0.03	-0.12
Jun 24, 2019	-0.05	0.1	-0.48	-0.15
May 20, 2019	-0.45	-0.33	0.05	-0.12
Apr 22, 2019	-0.15	2.55	-0.31	-2.7
Mar 25, 2019	-0.29	-0.25	-0.25	-0.04
Feb 25, 2019	-0.43	0.11	0.05	-0.54
Jan 28, 2019	0.27	0.15	0.21	0.12
Dec 24, 2018	0.22	0.91	0	-0.69
Nov 26, 2018	0.24	0.42	0.14	-0.18
Oct 22, 2018	0.17	0.15	0.27	0.02
Sep 24, 2018	0.18	0.02	0.18	0.16
Aug 27, 2018	0.13	0.13	0.48
Jul 23, 2018	0.43	0.25	-0.45	0.18
Jun 25, 2018	-0.15	0.09	0.42	-0.24
May 21, 2018	0.34	0.14	0.32	0.2
Apr 23, 2018	0.1	0.27	0.98	-0.17
Mar 26, 2018	0.88	0.15	0.02	0.73
Feb 26, 2018	0.12	0.2	0.14	-0.08
Jan 22, 2018	0.27	0.44	0.11	-0.17
Dec 21, 2017	0.15	0.09	0.76	0.06
Nov 21, 2017	0.65	0.2	0.36	0.45
Oct 23, 2017	0.17	-0.1	-0.37	0.27
Sep 25, 2017	-0.31	0.11	0.03	-0.42
Aug 21, 2017	-0.01	0.13	0.16	-0.14
Jul 27, 2017	0.13	0.35	-0.3	-0.22
Jun 26, 2017	-0.26	0.2	0.57	-0.46
May 22, 2017	0.49	0.25	0.07	0.24
Apr 24, 2017	0.08	0.3	0.27	-0.22
Mar 20, 2017	0.34	0.03	-0.02	0.31
Feb 23, 2017	-0.05	0.1	0.18	-0.15
Jan 26, 2017	0.14	0.12	-0.33	0.02
Dec 22, 2016	-0.27	-0.15	-0.05	-0.12
Nov 21, 2016	-0.08	0.18	-0.23	-0.26
Oct 24, 2016	-0.14	0.3	-0.72	-0.44
Sep 22, 2016	-0.55	0.14	0.24	-0.69
Aug 22, 2016	0.27	0.2	0.05	0.07
Jul 21, 2016	0.16	-0.2	-0.56	0.36
Jun 23, 2016	-0.51	0.2	0.05	-0.71
May 19, 2016	0.1	-0.22	-0.55	0.32
Apr 21, 2016	-0.44	-0.01	-0.38	-0.43
Mar 21, 2016	-0.29	-0.08	0.41	-0.21
Feb 22, 2016	0.28	-0.19	-0.34	0.47
Jan 22, 2016	-0.22	-0.27	-0.36	0.05
Dec 21, 2015	-0.3	0.1	-0.17	-0.4
Nov 23, 2015	-0.04	0.08	-0.29	-0.12
Oct 22, 2015	-0.37	-0.06	-0.39	-0.31
Sep 24, 2015	-0.41	0.13	0.51	-0.54
Aug 24, 2015	0.34	-0.07	-0.07	0.41
Jul 23, 2015	0.08	0.1	-0.08	-0.02
Jun 22, 2015	-0.17	-0.14	-0.19	-0.03
May 21, 2015	-0.15	0.27	-0.36	-0.42