Germany EUR

Germany Ifo Current Conditions Prel

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-1.2
Actual:
93.8
Forecast: 95
Previous/Revision:
99
Period: Mar
What Does It Measure?
The Germany Ifo Current Conditions index measures the current business sentiment regarding the economic situation among German businesses, focusing on their assessment of current economic conditions and operational performance. It primarily assesses the mood of managers in manufacturing, services, trade, and construction, and is considered a vital national indicator reflecting short-term business confidence.
Frequency
This index is released monthly, typically on the last working day of each month, and provides preliminary estimates that may be revised in the final report.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the Ifo Current Conditions index as it indicates the health of the German economy, which is the largest in Europe; higher-than-expected results can lead to appreciation of the euro and bolster European equities, while weaker reports may negatively affect these assets. Its timely release is crucial for assessing overall economic momentum and influencing monetary policy expectations.
What Is It Derived From?
The Ifo Current Conditions index is derived from a survey involving approximately 9,000 German businesses, where managers evaluate their current business situation and provide insights on their expectations. The data is collected through responses on business prospects, employing a diffusion index methodology to reflect positive or negative sentiments among the respondents.
Description
The preliminary report of the Ifo Current Conditions index provides early estimates based on survey responses and is subject to revisions, while the final report presents a more accurate picture of business sentiment following the release of additional data. Month-over-Month (MoM) reporting does not apply directly, as the index is generally presented in Year-over-Year (YoY) terms, focusing on comparative sentiment changes from the previous year to evaluate structural shifts in business behavior.
Additional Notes
The Ifo Current Conditions index serves as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current economic activity and provides insights that affect broader economic trends in Germany and the eurozone. It closely relates to other indicators of business sentiment, such as the ZEW Economic Sentiment index, enhancing forecasts for economic growth, investment trends, and employment prospects.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Mar 19, 2020
93.8
 95
99
 -1.2