United States USD

United States PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est

Impact:
Low
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
3.6%
Forecast: 3.6%
Previous/Revision:
2.4%
Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Q2
What Does It Measure?
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices QoQ measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services, explicitly focusing on the consumption aspect of the economy. It assesses inflation and helps gauge changes in consumer spending patterns, reflecting key indicators such as the Core PCE Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices.
Frequency
The United States PCE Prices report is released on a monthly basis, typically around the end of the following month, and often presents both preliminary estimates and revised final figures later.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the PCE Prices as it influences monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, impacting interest rates and the overall economic outlook. Changes in PCE can affect the value of the U.S. dollar, stock markets, and bond yields, with higher-than-expected inflation readings often leading to bearish sentiment in equities and bullishness in bonds.
What Is It Derived From?
The PCE Prices are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which compiles data from various sources, including consumer surveys and reports from businesses about sales. The calculation uses a weighted index that reflects changes in consumer spending patterns, making it a comprehensive measure of price changes in a wide range of goods and services purchased by households.
Description
Preliminary data is based on initial assessments and is subject to revisions, while the final report provides a more accurate representation of price changes over the quarter. The PCE Prices QoQ compares the current quarter’s prices to the previous quarter, allowing analysts to observe medium-term inflation trends that may signal economic shifts.
Additional Notes
As an inflation measure, the PCE Prices is considered a key indicator and is often preferred over other inflation indices such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to its broad scope and focus on consumer behavior. It serves as a leading indicator of economic health, relevant both nationally and in comparison to global inflation trends.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or inflation support, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
May 29, 2025
3.6%
 3.6%
2.4%
Feb 27, 2025
2.4%
 2.3%
1.5%
 0.1%
Nov 27, 2024
1.5%
 1.5%
2.5%
Aug 29, 2024
2.5%
 2.6%
3.4%
 -0.1%
May 30, 2024
3.3%
 3%
1.8%
 0.3%
Feb 28, 2024
1.8%
 1.7%
2.6%
 0.1%
Nov 29, 2023
2.8%
 2.9%
2.5%
 -0.1%
Aug 30, 2023
2.5%
 2.6%
4.1%
 -0.1%
May 25, 2023
4.2%
 4.2%
3.7%
Feb 23, 2023
3.7%
 3.2%
4.3%
 0.5%
Nov 30, 2022
4.3%
 4.2%
7.3%
 0.1%
Aug 25, 2022
7.1%
 7.1%
7.1%
May 26, 2022
7%
 7%
6.4%
Feb 24, 2022
6.3%
 6.4%
5.3%
 -0.1%
Nov 24, 2021
5.3%
 5.3%
6.5%
Aug 26, 2021
6.5%
 6.4%
3.8%
 0.1%
May 27, 2021
3.7%
 3.5%
1.5%
 0.2%
Feb 25, 2021
1.6%
 1.5%
3.7%
 0.1%
Feb 27, 2020
1.3%
 1.6%
1.5%
 -0.3%