United States USD

United States Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est

Impact:
Low
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-0.1%
Actual:
3.4%
Forecast: 3.5%
Previous/Revision:
2.6%
Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Q2
What Does It Measure?
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the price changes of goods and services consumed by households, excluding food and energy prices to provide a clearer view of inflation trends. It focuses on the purchasing behavior of consumers and assesses inflation by tracking changes in prices, with a key threshold of 2% often cited as a benchmark for stable inflation.
Frequency
The Core PCE Prices report is released quarterly, usually providing a second estimate that revises preliminary data from the initial report; it typically comes out at the end of the month following the quarter's conclusion.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the Core PCE index as it serves as a critical gauge of inflation, influencing Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. A higher-than-expected reading can strengthen the U.S. dollar and boost stock prices, while weaker figures may lead to declines in these markets due to fears of economic stagnation.
What Is It Derived From?
The Core PCE Prices index is derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, based on a comprehensive survey of households and consumer expenditures across various categories. It employs a chain-weighted approach to account for changes in consumer behavior and spending patterns over time.
Description
The Core PCE Prices consist of two key estimates: the preliminary and final reports. Preliminary reports are based on early data and are subject to change, while final reports provide a more accurate picture of inflation dynamics, leading to stronger market reactions to initial figures due to their immediacy, even though they can later be adjusted by the final estimates.
Additional Notes
The Core PCE index is considered a lagging indicator of economic health, reflecting past price movements rather than predicting future trends. It is closely related to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) but provides a different perspective, making it essential for assessing broader economic conditions in the U.S.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
If the Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Estimate shows a higher than expected growth rate: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. If it indicates a lower than expected growth rate: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
May 29, 2025
3.4%
 3.5%
2.6%
 -0.1%
Feb 27, 2025
2.7%
 2.5%
2.2%
 0.2%
Nov 27, 2024
2.1%
 2.2%
2.8%
 -0.1%
Aug 29, 2024
2.8%
 2.9%
3.7%
 -0.1%
May 30, 2024
3.6%
 3.7%
2%
 -0.1%
Feb 28, 2024
2.1%
 2%
2%
 0.1%
Nov 29, 2023
2.3%
 2.4%
3.7%
 -0.1%
Aug 30, 2023
3.7%
 3.8%
4.9%
 -0.1%
May 25, 2023
5%
 4.9%
4.4%
 0.1%
Feb 23, 2023
4.3%
 3.9%
4.7%
 0.4%
Nov 30, 2022
4.6%
 4.5%
4.7%
 0.1%
Aug 25, 2022
4.4%
 4.4%
5.2%
May 26, 2022
5.1%
 5.2%
5%
 -0.1%
Feb 24, 2022
5%
 4.9%
4.6%
 0.1%
Nov 24, 2021
4.5%
 4.5%
6.1%
Aug 26, 2021
6.1%
 6.1%
2.7%
May 27, 2021
2.5%
 2.3%
1.3%
 0.2%
Feb 25, 2021
2.3%
 1.4%
3.4%
 0.9%
Feb 27, 2020
1.2%
 1.3%
2.1%
 -0.1%