United States USD

United States GDP Price Index QoQ

Impact:
High
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.3%
| USD
Actual:
2%
Forecast: 1.7%
Previous/Revision:
1.5%
Period: Q4
What Does It Measure?
The GDP Price Index measures the price level of all new, domestically produced, final goods and services in the United States, specifically assessing inflation and deflation within the economy. It focuses on changes in prices and is key in determining real GDP by adjusting nominal GDP for inflation.
Frequency
The GDP Price Index is released quarterly, typically in advance of the final GDP report; the initial release is a preliminary estimate that may be revised in subsequent months.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders are interested in the GDP Price Index as it provides critical insights into inflationary pressures within the economy, influencing monetary policy decisions. Higher-than-expected results may lead to bullish sentiment for the USD and equities, while lower-than-expected results can create bearish reactions in these markets.
What Is It Derived From?
The index is derived from the compilation of data on prices from various sectors, utilizing a combination of national accounts statistics and consumer price indices. It involves extensive data collection from a wide range of industries to accurately represent price changes for final goods and services.
Description
The preliminary report of the GDP Price Index is regarded as an early estimate based on available data and subject to revisions, producing final data that offers a more precise picture of inflation trends once all data is accounted for. The comparison is typically conducted on a Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) basis, highlighting the price changes relative to the previous quarter and reflecting medium-term inflationary trends in the economy.
Additional Notes
The GDP Price Index is considered a lagging economic measure that confirms trends already identified by leading indicators. Its analysis can be juxtaposed with other inflation indicators, like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), providing a comprehensive view of inflation dynamics in the economy.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or inflation support, is usually bad for the USD but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Feb 28, 2019
2%
 1.7%
1.5%
 0.3%