United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est

Impact:
Medium
Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:
Big Surprise:
-0.2%
| GBP
Actual:
1.2%
Forecast: 1.4%
Previous/Revision:
1.4%
Period: Q1
What Does It Measure?
The United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate YoY measures the percentage increase in the country's gross domestic product compared to the same quarter in the previous year, providing insights into the economic performance over time. The primary focus includes assessing the overall economic activity, production levels, and income earned within the country, with key indicators such as consumption, investment, and net exports playing crucial roles, where a value above 2% typically indicates strong growth and below that suggests weakening activity.
Frequency
This report is released quarterly as a second estimate, typically one month after the preliminary figure, providing a more comprehensive view of the GDP performance.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the GDP Growth Rate YoY as it directly influences economic policy decisions and market sentiments, which can impact key financial assets such as the British pound, equities, and bonds. A higher-than-expected growth rate is often bullish for the currency and equity markets, while disappointing growth may lead to bearish sentiments.
What Is It Derived From?
The GDP Growth Rate YoY is derived from a comprehensive calculation that includes data from various sectors such as consumer spending, business investment, and government expenditure, ensuring a holistic view of economic activity. The data is collected through national accounts and surveys, following industry standards to ensure accuracy and reliability within the economic context.
Description
This report provides two key insights: the preliminary estimate, which is based on early data and can be revised, and the final estimate, which offers a more reliable measure of economic performance. The YoY measure is preferred for its ability to eliminate seasonal variations and provide a clearer picture of economic trends over a longer-term horizon.
Additional Notes
The GDP Growth Rate YoY serves as a coincident economic indicator, meaning it reflects the current state of the economy rather than predicting future trends. It is often compared with other indicators such as inflation rates and employment figures to provide a more comprehensive understanding of economic health.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower growth prospects often leads to expectations for lower interest rates, which is usually bad for the currency but good for stocks due to lower borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
May 25, 2018
1.2%
 1.4%
1.4%
-0.2%
Feb 22, 2018
1.4%
 1.4%
1.8%
Nov 23, 2017
1.5%
 1.5%
1.5%
Aug 24, 2017
1.7%
 1.7%
2%
May 25, 2017
2%
 2.1%
1.9%
-0.1%
Feb 22, 2017
2%
 2.2%
2%
-0.2%
Nov 25, 2016
2.3%
 2.3%
2.1%
Aug 26, 2016
2.2%
 2.2%
2%
May 26, 2016
2%
 2.1%
2.1%
-0.1%
Feb 25, 2016
1.9%
 1.9%
2.1%
Nov 27, 2015
2.3%
 2.3%
2.4%
Aug 28, 2015
2.6%
 2.6%
2.9%
May 28, 2015
2.4%
 2.5%
3%
 -0.1%