United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

0.1%

Forecast: 0.1%

Previous/Revision:

0.4%

Period: Q1

What Does It Measure?

The United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate measures the change in the economic output of the UK over a specified period, explicitly indicating the overall health of the economy by assessing production levels, consumption, and investment activities. It primarily focuses on key indicators such as private consumption, government spending, business investments, and net exports, with a reading above 0% indicating economic expansion while a figure below 0% signifies contraction.

Frequency

This report is released quarterly, with the second estimate providing a revision of the initial GDP growth figure and is typically published around two months after the end of the quarter.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor GDP growth as it serves as a critical gauge of the economy's performance, impacting various financial markets, including currencies (like the GBP), stocks, and bonds. Stronger-than-expected GDP growth tends to be bullish for the currency and equities, reflecting increased economic confidence, while weaker results can lead to bearish sentiments.

What Is It Derived From?

The GDP growth rate is derived from comprehensive national accounts statistics collected through various sources, including surveys of businesses, government reports, and taxation data. It incorporates a mix of methodologies like the expenditure approach, which sums consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports, as well as the production approach, assessing value added across different sectors.

Description

The GDP growth rate report can have both preliminary and final figures, where the preliminary data are based on early estimates subject to revision, while the final data represents a more accurate calculation reflecting channeled economic activity. Financial markets often respond more significantly to the preliminary figures due to their timely nature, but adjustments may occur once the final figures are released, as they confirm or modify the initial expectations.

Additional Notes

The GDP growth rate acts as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current economic performance and trends. This measure is pivotal for understanding broader economic dynamics both within the UK and when making comparisons to other regions, particularly in context with leading indicators like consumer sentiment and business confidence indices.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 25, 2018	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%
Feb 22, 2018	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%
Nov 23, 2017	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
Aug 24, 2017	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
May 25, 2017	0.2%	0.3%	0.7%	-0.1%
Feb 22, 2017	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%	0.1%
Nov 25, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.7%
Aug 26, 2016	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%
May 26, 2016	0.4%	0.4%	0.6%
Feb 25, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Nov 27, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.7%
Aug 28, 2015	0.7%	0.7%	0.4%
May 28, 2015	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%	-0.1%