Spain EUR

Spain CPI Final

Impact:
Low
Source: National Statistics Institute (INE)

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
109.7
Forecast: 109.7
Previous/Revision:
109.9
Period: Nov
What Does It Measure?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Final measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a variety of goods and services, reflecting inflation levels in Spain. It focuses on key areas such as food, energy, housing, and transportation, and is a critical indicator of the purchasing power of consumers and overall economic health, with notable thresholds indicating economic expansion or contraction.
Frequency
The CPI is released on a monthly basis, with the final figures typically published around the 15th of the following month, after preliminary estimates have been assessed and adjusted.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to CPI data as it provides insight into inflation trends that can influence monetary policy, affecting interest rates and financial markets. Higher-than-expected inflation typically bolsters the Euro against other currencies and can lead to bearish sentiments in equities, as rising prices may squeeze consumer spending.
What Is It Derived From?
The CPI is derived from a comprehensive survey of prices collected from various sources, including retail stores and service providers across urban areas in Spain. The methodology involves weighting the importance of different items according to their frequency of purchase, and calculations are based on a basket of goods and services that reflects the average consumption patterns of households.
Description
Preliminary reports of the CPI display early estimates of inflation, which can often lead to market reactions, whereas final reports provide a more accurate assessment based on additional data and refinements. The CPI is reported primarily on a Year-over-Year (YoY) basis, allowing for the elimination of seasonal effects and showcasing long-term price trends that are crucial for economic analysis.
Additional Notes
The CPI serves as a leading economic indicator that can influence not only domestic policy but also international currency markets, as price stability is vital for economic health. As a coincident indicator, it closely reflects current economic conditions, and its trends correlate with other related indicators like wage growth and employment rates.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the Currency but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Dec 14, 2022
109.7
 109.7
109.9
Nov 15, 2022
109.9
 109.9
109.5