China CNY

China Spring Festival

Impact:
Low

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The China Spring Festival, or Lunar New Year celebration, measures economic activity through a surge in consumer spending and production, reflecting the socio-economic dynamics during this significant cultural event. It primarily focuses on retail activities, travel, tourism, and various service sectors, illustrating trends related to personal consumption and regional economic performance.
Frequency
This event is observed annually, with preparations and any associated economic data typically beginning to surface in the weeks preceding the festival, culminating in a peak during late January or early February, depending on the lunar calendar.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor the Spring Festival closely as it often leads to increased consumer spending, which can positively influence Chinese equities and commodities, such as food and textiles. A strong performance during this period can signal economic resilience, impacting currency valuations like the CNY and shaping broader market sentiment.
What Is It Derived From?
The economic indicators related to the Spring Festival, such as retail sales figures, are derived from extensive surveys conducted with businesses in retail, hospitality, and transportation sectors, alongside government statistics on consumer behavior. Data collection methods include tracking sales transactions during the festival period compared to the previous year and analyzing tourism statistics.
Description
The Spring Festival influences economic data primarily in the form of year-over-year (YoY) comparisons, showcasing consumer spending patterns and shifts in retail activity during this festive period. The YoY measure is particularly relevant because it effectively accounts for seasonal factors, allowing for the analysis of long-term trends in consumer sentiment and spending.
Additional Notes
The Spring Festival serves as a leading economic indicator for consumer health in China, providing insight into future spending trends and economic conditions. It is often assessed in conjunction with other economic reports, such as GDP growth rates and consumer confidence indexes, offering a broader understanding of regional and national economic health.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise