China CNY

China Spring Festival Golden Week holiday

Impact:
Low

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The China Spring Festival Golden Week holiday measures the economic activity and consumer spending patterns during the peak travel and shopping season in China, focusing on retail sales, tourism, and overall consumer confidence. It assesses key indicators such as domestic consumption levels, travel-related expenditures, and employment rates in the hospitality sector, making it a national economic indicator.
Frequency
The data related to the Spring Festival Golden Week occurs annually, with reports released shortly after the holiday period, typically in early February, reflecting preliminary estimates as final data will be available later.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders value the Spring Festival Golden Week holiday as it significantly impacts various sectors, including retail, tourism, and hospitality, which can affect China's overall GDP growth. Positive results indicating increased consumer spending can boost confidence in Chinese equities and the Chinese yuan, while lower-than-expected outcomes may raise concerns about economic slowdown.
What Is It Derived From?
The economic insights from the Spring Festival holiday are derived from consumer spending surveys, tourism data, transportation statistics, and retail sales reports, with participation from various sectors such as travel agencies, retail outlets, and consumer surveys. This data is typically gathered through government statistics and industry reports, employing comprehensive collection methodologies to ensure accuracy.
Description
The Spring Festival Golden Week is represented through various metrics, primarily focusing on year-over-year performance of retail sales and tourism spending, eliminating seasonal fluctuations associated with the holiday. It serves as an important indicator of consumer sentiment and economic activity, particularly after a year marked by challenges or contraction, thus providing insights into recovery or growth trends.
Additional Notes
This holiday period is considered a coincident economic indicator, as it reflects real-time trends in consumer behavior during the festive season. The results are closely monitored not only regionally within China but also compared globally, as they may influence perceptions of the broader Asian market and impact global commodity prices.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Chinese Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise