Australia AUD

Australia Federal Election

Impact:
Low

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The Australia Federal Election measures the outcome of the parliamentary elections held to elect Members of the House of Representatives and Senators, determining the composition of the government. It primarily focuses on political stability and legislative direction, influencing economic policies including taxation, spending, and regulatory adjustments.
Frequency
Elections are held approximately every three years, with a set date established or within the constitutional timeframe that requires the election to be called after the preceding one.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders remain attentive to federal elections due to their significant impact on economic policy and governance, which can influence market sentiment across currencies, stocks, bonds, and commodities. Shifts in political power could lead to changes in fiscal policy, trade regulations, and monetary policy, heavily affecting the decision-making process for both domestic and international investors.
What Is It Derived From?
The outcome of the federal election is derived from a secret ballot of eligible voters across Australia, reflecting the voters' preferences for parliamentary representatives. The counting of votes utilizes preferential voting, where voters rank candidates, facilitating a more nuanced selection process and requiring a complex calculation to determine outcomes in multi-member electorates.
Description
The Australia Federal Election is a critical event as it establishes the governing party and, consequently, sets forth the country’s economic, social, and foreign policies. The results are carefully scrutinized by analysts and economists, as they can signal upcoming changes in various policy areas that directly affect the economic climate, investment landscape, and consumer confidence.
Additional Notes
The federal election serves as a coincident economic measure, often correlating with broad economic indicators such as GDP growth rates and employment levels. Its results can also impact market confidence and economic forecasts not just within Australia, but also for its key trade partners, making it a focal point for global economic observers.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Results indicating a stable government with a clear mandate: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Results signaling uncertainty or a significant change of power: Bearish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling economic support and expansionary fiscal policies is usually good for the AUD but bad for Stocks due to potential increases in government debt.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise