United States USD

United States NOPA Crush Report

Impact:
Low

Next Release:

Forecast:
Period: Oct 2023
What Does It Measure?
The NOPA Crush Report measures the crush margins and processing volumes of soybeans in the United States, particularly focusing on the operations of member companies of the National Oilseed Processors Association. It provides key data on the monthly crush of soybeans, oil, and meal production, which are vital components in assessing supply dynamics, demand forecasts, and the overall health of the agricultural sector.
Frequency
The report is released monthly, typically on or around the 15th of each month, and includes both preliminary estimates and final figures, with the latter offering a more accurate reflection of these operations.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the NOPA Crush Report because it influences the prices of soybeans and related commodities, impacting agricultural markets and commodity indices. An increase in crush volumes or higher crush margins typically signals strong demand, which can be bullish for soybean prices and, consequently, for equities linked to the agricultural sector.
What Is It Derived From?
The report is derived from data collected from member companies of the NOPA that process oilseeds, focusing on their crush volumes and production of soybean meal and oil. The calculations are based on reported monthly totals from these members, providing a comprehensive overview of the oilseed processing landscape in the U.S.
Description
The NOPA Crush Report distinguishes between preliminary and final reports; preliminary data reflects early estimates influenced by timely reporting, while final figures are published later for greater accuracy and may lead to market adjustments. The report compares the current month's crushing activity against previous months but primarily focuses on Year-over-Year (YoY) figures to highlight long-term trends while minimizing seasonal effects.
Additional Notes
The NOPA Crush Report serves as a leading indicator for trends within the soybean market, impacting not just local prices but also international markets due to the U.S.'s significant role as a soybean exporter. It is often analyzed in conjunction with the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for a fuller picture of global agricultural conditions.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for the USD, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise