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European Union EUR

European Union European Council Meeting on Brexit

Impact:
Medium

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
 
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:  
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The European Union European Council Meeting on Brexit assesses the progress and negotiations surrounding the United Kingdom's exit from the EU, focusing on trade agreements, regulatory alignment, and political implications of Brexit. It measures the sentiments and decisions made by EU leaders that can significantly impact the economic relationship between the UK and EU member states.
Frequency
These meetings occur at least twice a year, with additional extraordinary meetings as needed, and the details are typically published shortly after the meeting concludes. Reports on the outcomes can be preliminary, subject to further discussions or clarifications in subsequent meetings.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the outcomes of these meetings as they directly influence market sentiment regarding the future of trade between the UK and the EU, impacting currencies, stocks, and other financial instruments. Positive or constructive outcomes can strengthen the euro and UK pound, while negative or ambiguous results may lead to volatility in markets and bearish sentiment.
What Is It Derived From?
The outcomes from the European Council meetings are derived from discussions among member state leaders, which involve negotiations on key issues related to Brexit, including trade, citizens' rights, and financial obligations. The conclusions are often based on collective agreements or joint statements developed through intense diplomatic dialogue and consensus-building.
Description
The European Council Meeting on Brexit serves as a critical indicator of the political climate surrounding the EU-UK relationship and its economic implications. It functions as a coincident measure since the decisions taken can immediately affect market perceptions and economic activities related to trade and investment.
Additional Notes
The meeting results are often compared with other related indicators such as parliamentary votes in the UK or public opinion polls regarding Brexit, providing context for the discussions. As a leading economic measure, the outcomes of these meetings are closely monitored as they can significantly influence market trends and policy directions.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Actual outcomes that indicate a successful negotiation framework: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Actual outcomes that reveal continued deadlock or lack of clarity: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling potential for economic support or stability measures, usually good for the GBP but bad for Stocks due to fears of prolonged uncertainty impacting economic growth.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Dec 13, 2018
 
  
Nov 25, 2018
 
  
Oct 17, 2018