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United States USD

United States Presidential Elections

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
 
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
Obama
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United States Presidential Elections measure the democratic process through which citizens vote to select their President and Vice President. This event assesses public sentiment, political alignment, and potential policy shifts, reflecting the collective priorities of the electorate, with key indicators including voter turnout rates and electoral college results.
Frequency
Presidential elections occur every four years on the first Tuesday following the first Monday in November, with preliminary election data often released shortly after polls close but subject to revisions as states finalize their tallies.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor presidential elections due to their significant impact on economic policy, market stability, and investor sentiment. Specific outcomes can lead to volatility in key assets such as currencies, stocks, and commodities, influencing decisions based on perceived market-friendly or unfriendly administrations.
What Is It Derived From?
The elections are derived from a nationwide process where registered voters cast their ballots for candidates, typically conducted using a mix of paper and electronic voting systems. The results are tabulated at local, state, and national levels, involving extensive surveying and monitoring by various electoral bodies.
Description
Preliminary reports on election outcomes may be based on exit polls and early counting, reflecting immediate public sentiment, while final results are determined after comprehensive verification of all ballots, ensuring higher accuracy. Since the elections are pivotal events that fundamentally reshape the nation's political landscape, they are essential for understanding future economic policies and trends.
Additional Notes
Presidential elections serve as a leading indicator of potential economic policy changes, impacting investor confidence and market reactions both domestically and globally. Comparisons to previous elections can provide insights into shifting political dynamics, with attention often focused on how individual states contribute to the overall electoral outcome.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected voter turnout and a definitive outcome signaling stability: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Nov 08, 2016
 
 Hillary
Obama