United States USD

United States Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.2%

USD

Actual:

0.1%

Forecast: 0.3%

Previous/Revision:

0.8%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The United States Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automotive sales, on a month-over-month basis. This indicator primarily focuses on consumer spending, which is a critical component of economic health, assessing key areas such as retail performance and trends in consumer demand.

Frequency

This economic indicator is released monthly as a preliminary estimate, typically published on the 13th of each month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM because it serves as a gauge of consumer spending and economic momentum, influencing expectations for GDP growth. A higher-than-expected figure can bolster confidence in the economy, positively impacting assets such as equities and currencies, while disappointing results may lead to bearish sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is compiled from a monthly survey conducted by the Census Bureau, which collects data from a variety of retailers across the country. The calculation includes sampling from thousands of retail establishments, using sales estimates that are weighted to reflect the total sales figures across the sector.

Description

The Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is reported as a percentage change compared to the previous month's sales, eliminating the noise often associated with auto sales which can fluctuate significantly based on external factors. This measure is particularly useful for identifying trends in consumer spending because it strips out segments that can distort the broader retail picture, allowing analysts to understand underlying demand.

Additional Notes

This indicator is considered a coincident economic measure, reflecting current consumer spending patterns that can indicate immediate economic conditions. It is often compared with other indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and consumer confidence indices, providing insights into broader economic trends in individual states and across the national economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling economic support, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to lower consumer spending.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	0.1%	0.3%	0.8%	-0.2%
Apr 16, 2025	0.5%	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%
Mar 17, 2025	0.3%	0.4%	-0.6%	-0.1%
Feb 14, 2025	-0.4%	0.3%	0.7%	-0.7%
Jan 16, 2025	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%
Dec 17, 2024	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2%
Nov 15, 2024	0.1%	0.3%	1%	-0.2%
Oct 17, 2024	0.5%	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%
Sep 17, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.1%
Aug 15, 2024	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%	0.3%
Jul 16, 2024	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
Jun 18, 2024	-0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%	-0.3%
May 15, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	0.9%
Apr 15, 2024	1.1%	0.4%	0.6%	0.7%
Mar 14, 2024	0.3%	0.5%	-0.8%	-0.2%
Feb 15, 2024	-0.6%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.8%
Jan 17, 2024	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Dec 14, 2023	0.2%	-0.1%	0%	0.3%
Nov 15, 2023	0.1%	0%	0.8%	0.1%
Oct 17, 2023	0.6%	0.2%	0.9%	0.4%
Sep 14, 2023	0.6%	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%
Aug 15, 2023	1%	0.4%	0.2%	0.6%
Jul 18, 2023	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.1%
Jun 15, 2023	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%
May 16, 2023	0.4%	0.4%	-0.5%
Apr 14, 2023	-0.8%	-0.3%	0%	-0.5%
Mar 15, 2023	-0.1%	-0.1%	2.4%
Feb 15, 2023	2.3%	0.8%	-0.9%	1.5%
Jan 18, 2023	-1.1%	-0.4%	-0.6%	-0.7%
Dec 15, 2022	-0.2%	0.2%	1.2%	-0.4%
Nov 16, 2022	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%	0.9%
Oct 14, 2022	0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%
Sep 15, 2022	-0.3%	0.1%	0%	-0.4%
Aug 17, 2022	0.4%	-0.1%	0.9%	0.5%
Jul 15, 2022	1%	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%
Jun 15, 2022	0.5%	0.8%	0.4%	-0.3%
May 17, 2022	0.6%	0.4%	2.1%	0.2%
Apr 14, 2022	1.1%	1%	0.6%	0.1%
Mar 16, 2022	0.2%	0.9%	4.4%	-0.7%
Feb 16, 2022	3.3%	0.8%	-2.8%	2.5%
Jan 14, 2022	-2.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-2.5%
Dec 15, 2021	0.3%	0.9%	1.8%	-0.6%
Nov 16, 2021	1.7%	1%	0.7%	0.7%
Oct 15, 2021	0.8%	0.5%	2%	0.3%
Sep 16, 2021	1.8%	-0.1%	-1%	1.9%
Aug 17, 2021	-0.4%	0.1%	1.6%	-0.5%
Jul 16, 2021	1.3%	0.4%	-0.9%	0.9%
Jun 15, 2021	-0.7%	0.2%	0%	-0.9%
May 14, 2021	-0.8%	0.7%	9%	-1.5%
Apr 15, 2021	8.4%	5%	-2.5%	3.4%
Mar 16, 2021	-2.7%	-0.1%	8.3%	-2.6%
Feb 17, 2021	5.9%	1%	-1.8%	4.9%
Jan 15, 2021	-1.4%	-0.1%	-1.3%	-1.3%
Dec 16, 2020	-0.9%	0.1%	-0.1%	-1%
Nov 17, 2020	0.2%	0.6%	1.2%	-0.4%
Oct 16, 2020	1.5%	0.5%	0.5%	1%
Sep 16, 2020	0.7%	0.9%	1.3%	-0.2%
Aug 14, 2020	1.9%	1.3%	8.3%	0.6%
Jul 16, 2020	7.3%	5%	12.1%	2.3%
Jun 16, 2020	12.4%	5.5%	-15.2%	6.9%
May 15, 2020	-17.2%	-8.6%	-4%	-8.6%
Apr 15, 2020	-4.5%	-4.8%	-0.4%	0.3%
Mar 17, 2020	-0.4%	0.2%	0.6%	-0.6%
Feb 14, 2020	0.3%	0.3%	0.6%
Jan 16, 2020	0.7%	0.5%	0%	0.2%
Dec 13, 2019	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	-0.3%
Nov 15, 2019	0.2%	0.4%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Oct 16, 2019	-0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.3%
Sep 13, 2019	0%	0.1%	1%	-0.1%
Aug 15, 2019	1%	0.4%	0.3%	0.6%
Jul 16, 2019	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%
Jun 14, 2019	0.5%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%
May 15, 2019	0.1%	0.7%	1.3%	-0.6%
Apr 18, 2019	1.2%	0.7%	-0.2%	0.5%
Apr 01, 2019	-0.4%	0.4%	1.4%	-0.8%
Mar 11, 2019	0.9%	0.2%	-2.1%	0.7%
Feb 14, 2019	-1.8%	0.1%	0%	-1.9%
Dec 14, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	1%
Nov 15, 2018	0.7%	0.5%	-0.1%	0.2%
Oct 15, 2018	-0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.5%
Sep 14, 2018	0.3%	0.5%	0.9%	-0.2%
Aug 15, 2018	0.6%	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%
Jul 16, 2018	0.4%	0.4%	1.4%
Jun 14, 2018	0.9%	0.5%	0.4%	0.4%
May 15, 2018	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	-0.2%
Apr 16, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Mar 14, 2018	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.2%
Feb 14, 2018	0%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.4%
Jan 12, 2018	0.4%	0.4%	1.3%
Dec 14, 2017	1%	0.6%	0.4%	0.4%
Nov 15, 2017	0.1%	0.2%	1.2%	-0.1%
Oct 13, 2017	1%	0.3%	0.5%	0.7%
Sep 15, 2017	0.2%	0.5%	0.4%	-0.3%
Aug 15, 2017	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%
Jul 14, 2017	-0.2%	0.2%	-0.3%	-0.4%
Jun 14, 2017	-0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.5%
May 12, 2017	0.3%	0.5%	0.3%	-0.2%
Apr 14, 2017	0%	0.1%	0%	-0.1%
Mar 15, 2017	0.2%	0.2%	1.2%
Feb 15, 2017	0.8%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
Jan 13, 2017	0.2%	0.5%	0.3%	-0.3%
Dec 14, 2016	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%	-0.2%
Nov 15, 2016	0.8%	0.5%	0.7%	0.3%
Oct 14, 2016	0.5%	0.4%	-0.2%	0.1%
Sep 15, 2016	-0.1%	0.2%	-0.4%	-0.3%
Aug 12, 2016	-0.3%	0.2%	0.9%	-0.5%
Jul 15, 2016	0.7%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
Jun 14, 2016	0.4%	0.4%	0.8%
May 13, 2016	0.8%	0.3%	0.4%	0.5%
Apr 13, 2016	0.2%	0.4%	0%	-0.2%
Mar 15, 2016	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.4%	0.1%
Feb 12, 2016	0.1%	0%	0.1%	0.1%
Jan 15, 2016	-0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.3%
Dec 11, 2015	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 13, 2015	0.2%	0.4%	-0.4%	-0.2%
Oct 14, 2015	-0.3%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Sep 15, 2015	0.3%	0.2%	0.7%	0.1%
Aug 13, 2015	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
Jul 14, 2015	-0.1%	0.5%	0.8%	-0.6%
Jun 11, 2015	1%	0.7%	0.1%	0.3%
May 13, 2015	0.1%	0.5%	0.7%	-0.4%