Euro Area EUR

Euro Area CPI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: EUROSTAT

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.17

EUR

Actual:

128.73

Forecast: 128.9

Previous/Revision:

128.77

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 129.1

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash measures the rate of inflation in the Eurozone by assessing changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. This indicator primarily focuses on the purchasing power of consumers and key areas such as food, energy, housing, and transportation, with key indicators including month-over-month and year-over-year price changes, serving as a national indicator.

Frequency

The Euro Area CPI Flash is released monthly, typically around the end of each month, and it provides a preliminary estimate of inflation that is subject to subsequent revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Euro Area CPI Flash as it provides insights into inflation trends, which critically influence monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB). Higher-than-expected inflation readings can lead to expectations of interest rate hikes, affecting the euro’s strength and impacting related financial markets, such as equities and bonds.

What Is It Derived From?

The CPI Flash is derived from a survey that includes a representative sample of retailers and service providers across the Eurozone, utilizing a standardized methodology for data collection and analysis. It combines price data across various categories using a weighted index to reflect the relative importance of each category in consumer spending.

Description

The CPI Flash provides a preliminary estimate of inflation based on collected price data and is released before the comprehensive final report. Preliminary data may indicate the direction of economic trends and consumer behavior, while the final reports offer a more accurate reflection following further data confirmations and adjustments.

Additional Notes

The CPI Flash serves as a leading economic measure, highlighting inflationary pressures before the final CPI report is released. It is relevant not only within the Eurozone but is also compared to inflation measures from other major economies, thus providing valuable context for global economic trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling economic support amidst inflation concerns, which is usually good for the EUR but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 03, 2025	128.73	128.9	128.77	-0.17
May 02, 2025	128.76	128.5	128.04	0.26
Apr 01, 2025	128.04	127.9	127.26	0.14
Mar 03, 2025	127.32	127.4	126.72	-0.08
Feb 03, 2025	126.71	126.8	127.07	-0.09
Jan 07, 2025	127.08	126.62	126.62	0.46
Nov 29, 2024	126.67	126.7	127.03	-0.03
Oct 31, 2024	127.03	126.9	126.6	0.13
Oct 01, 2024	126.63	126.7	126.72	-0.07
Aug 30, 2024	126.74	126.8	126.54	-0.06
Jul 31, 2024	126.6	126.2	126.6	0.4
Jul 02, 2024	126.58	126.6	126.31	-0.02
May 31, 2024	126.32	126.2	126.04	0.12
Apr 30, 2024	126.1	126.1	125.3
Apr 03, 2024	125.3	125.5	124.4	-0.2
Mar 01, 2024	124.4	124.2	123.6	0.2
Feb 01, 2024	123.58	123.7	124.05	-0.12
Jan 05, 2024	124.04	124	123.85	0.04
Nov 30, 2023	123.86	124.3	124.54	-0.44
Oct 31, 2023	124.55	124.8	124.4	-0.25
Sep 29, 2023	124.44	124.9	124.03	-0.46
Aug 31, 2023	124.05	123.7	123.36	0.35
Jul 31, 2023	123.4	123.2	123.5	0.2
Jun 30, 2023	123.46	123.6	123.2	-0.14
Jun 01, 2023	123.16	123.6	123.1	-0.44
May 02, 2023	123.2	122.7	122.3	0.5
Mar 31, 2023	122.33	122.9	121.24	-0.57
Mar 02, 2023	121.23	121.1	120.27	0.13
Feb 01, 2023	120	120.3	120.52	-0.3
Jan 06, 2023	120.53	121.2	120.95	-0.67
Nov 30, 2022	120.92	121.15	121.03	-0.23
Oct 31, 2022	121.07	120.81	119.26	0.26
Sep 30, 2022	119.3	119	117.85	0.3
Aug 31, 2022	117.78	117.8	117.14	-0.02
Jul 29, 2022	117.14	117.6	117.01	-0.46
Jul 01, 2022	117	116.6	116.07	0.4
May 31, 2022	116.07	115.23	115.11	0.84
Apr 29, 2022	115.17	115.03	114.46	0.14
Apr 01, 2022	114.5	113.9	111.74	0.6
Mar 02, 2022	111.7	111.1	110.74	0.6