United States USD

United States Core PCE Price Index MoM

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
0.1%
Forecast: 0.1%
Previous/Revision:
0%
Period: Nov
What Does It Measure?
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by individuals, excluding food and energy prices due to their volatility. This index assesses inflationary trends within the economy, focusing on consumer spending habits and the purchasing power of households.
Frequency
The Core PCE Price Index is released on a monthly basis and typically includes both a preliminary estimate and a final figure for refinement, with data usually published on the last business day of the month.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the Core PCE Price Index as it serves as a critical gauge of inflation, influencing monetary policy and economic forecasts; strong inflation readings can lead to expectations of interest rate hikes, affecting asset prices across currencies, stocks, and bonds. Any deviation from expectations produces significant market reactions, as it provides insight into consumer behavior and central bank actions.
What Is It Derived From?
The Core PCE Price Index is derived from a comprehensive survey of consumer expenditure conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This survey includes data on consumer purchases and considers various items' price changes, applying a chaining method to reflect current consumer behavior and consumption patterns.
Description
Preliminary reports of the Core PCE Price Index offer early insights based on recent trends but are subject to revisions, while final reports provide a more refined and accurate reflection of inflation trends within the economy. The index utilizes a Month-over-Month (MoM) basis for reporting, which enables traders to identify short-term price movements and trends crucial for immediate market positioning.
Additional Notes
The Core PCE Price Index is generally considered a leading indicator of inflationary trends, closely linked to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Changes in the index are often compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and other inflation measures to provide a comprehensive understanding of the inflation landscape.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the USD but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Dec 23, 2015
0.1%
 0.1%
0%
Jun 25, 2015
0.1%
 0.1%
0.1%
Jun 01, 2015
0.1%
 0.2%
0.1%
 -0.1%