United States USD

United States Philly Fed Business Conditions

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

47.2

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

6.9

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey, commonly known as the Philly Fed Business Conditions Index, measures the manufacturing activity and economic conditions in the Third Federal Reserve District, which includes Pennsylvania, parts of New Jersey, and Delaware. It primarily focuses on key areas such as production, employment, and overall business sentiment, specifically assessing current business conditions, future outlooks, and pricing pressures.

Frequency

The report is released monthly, typically on the third Thursday of the month, providing both preliminary and final estimates of business conditions for the previous month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Philly Fed Business Conditions Index closely as it serves as a leading indicator of manufacturing performance in the U.S., influencing perceptions of economic health. Stronger-than-expected results can boost the U.S. dollar and equities, while weaker readings may lead to bearish sentiment in both currency and stock markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is calculated based on surveys conducted among a diverse group of manufacturing executives in the Third District. The survey gathers data on key metrics such as new orders, shipments, inventory levels, and delivery times, utilizing diffusion indexes to capture business sentiment and activity.

Description

Preliminary reports are based on early responses from manufacturers and may be subject to revision, while final reports reflect more comprehensive data and are released later in the month. In this case, the report uses year-over-year (YoY) comparisons to assess trends, which helps to account for seasonal variations and provides insight into longer-term economic shifts.

Additional Notes

The Philly Fed Index is regarded as a coincident indicator, reflecting current manufacturing health, and can provide insights into broader national economic trends. Compared to other indicators like the ISM Manufacturing Index or regional Fed surveys, it adds a localized perspective while also highlighting themes relevant to the overall U.S. economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	47.2		6.9
Apr 17, 2025	6.9		5.6
Mar 20, 2025	5.6		27.8
Feb 20, 2025	27.8		46.3
Jan 16, 2025	46.3		33.8
Dec 19, 2024	30.7		56.6
Nov 21, 2024	56.6		36.7
Oct 17, 2024	36.7		15.8
Sep 19, 2024	15.8		15.4
Aug 15, 2024	15.4		38.7
Jul 18, 2024	38.7		13.8
Jun 20, 2024	13.8		32.4
May 16, 2024	32.4		34.3
Apr 18, 2024	34.3		38.6
Mar 21, 2024	38.6		7.2
Feb 15, 2024	7.2		-4
Jan 18, 2024	-4		12.6
Dec 21, 2023	12.1		-2.1
Nov 16, 2023	-2.1		9.2
Oct 19, 2023	9.2		11.1
Sep 21, 2023	11.1		3.9
Aug 17, 2023	3.9	31.6	29.1	-27.7
Jul 20, 2023	29.1	10	12.7	19.1
Jun 15, 2023	12.7	-10.9	-10.3	23.6
May 18, 2023	-10.3	-11.3	-1.5	1
Apr 20, 2023	-1.5	-11.9	-8	10.4
Mar 16, 2023	-8	2	1.7	-10
Feb 16, 2023	1.7	5.2	4.9	-3.5
Jan 19, 2023	4.9	3.5	-0.9	1.4
Dec 15, 2022	3.8	-3	-7.1	6.8
Nov 17, 2022	-7.1	-12	-14.9	4.9
Oct 20, 2022	-14.9	-2.5	-3.9	-12.4
Sep 15, 2022	-3.9	-8	-10.6	4.1
Aug 18, 2022	-10.6	-11	-18.6	0.4
Jul 21, 2022	-18.6	-5	-6.8	-13.6
Jun 16, 2022	-6.8	3	2.5	-9.8
May 19, 2022	2.5	8	8.2	-5.5
Apr 21, 2022	8.2	20	22.7	-11.8
Mar 17, 2022	22.7	28	28.1	-5.3
Feb 17, 2022	28.1	31	28.7	-2.9
Jan 20, 2022	28.7	21	19	7.7
Dec 16, 2021	19	27	28.5	-8
Nov 18, 2021	28.5		24.2
Oct 21, 2021	24.2		20