United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Confederation of British Industry

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-8

GBP

Actual:

-34

Forecast: -26

Previous/Revision:

-46

Period: Jul

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: -30

Period: Aug

What Does It Measure?

The CBI Distributive Trades measure evaluates the sales performance and overall business sentiment within the UK retail sector, explicitly focusing on the changes in the volume of sales and consumer demand. It assesses key indicators such as; order books, sales expectations, and stock levels, all of which provide insights into production and employment trends, thus serving as a national indicator reflecting the retail industry's health.

Frequency

The CBI Distributive Trades report is released monthly and typically provides a preliminary estimate within the first week of the following month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the CBI Distributive Trades because it serves as a vital gauge of consumer sentiment and spending trends, directly influencing UK economic forecasts and market sentiment. Strong retail sales figures can lead to a bullish outlook for the British pound and equities, while weaker results generally exert bearish pressure on these assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The CBI Distributive Trades index is derived from a survey of around 600 businesses within the retail sector, collecting data on sales well-being and expectations through responses about current performance and future outlooks. The index utilizes a diffusion index methodology, which indicates the percentage of businesses reporting an increase in sales versus those reporting a decline.

Description

The CBI Distributive Trades is released as a preliminary report based on early estimates from participating businesses, which can serve as a leading indicator of retail trends. Preliminary figures are often subject to later revisions when final data is collected, reflecting a more accurate measure of retail performance.

Additional Notes

The CBI Distributive Trades is considered a coincident economic indicator as it correlates with overall economic activity and consumer spending patterns. This data provides insight not only into the UK economy but also serves as a comparative analysis for similar retail reports globally, highlighting trends in consumer behavior across regions.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jul 28, 2025	-34	-26	-46	-8
Jun 26, 2025	-46	-32	-27	-14
May 27, 2025	-27	-18	-8	-9
Apr 28, 2025	-8	-20	-41	12
Mar 25, 2025	-41	-28	-23	-13
Feb 25, 2025	-23	-25	-24	2
Jan 24, 2025	-24	-5	-15	-19
Dec 20, 2024	-15	-9	-18	-6
Nov 26, 2024	-18	-14	-6	-4
Oct 28, 2024	-6	10	4	-16
Sep 27, 2024	4	-19	-27	23
Aug 27, 2024	-27	-11	-43	-16
Jul 29, 2024	-43	-20	-24	-23
Jun 26, 2024	-24	1	8	-25
May 28, 2024	8	-24	-44	32
Apr 25, 2024	-44	-2	2	-42
Mar 25, 2024	2	-15	-7	17
Feb 26, 2024	-7	-47	-50	40
Jan 25, 2024	-50	-30	-32	-20
Dec 21, 2023	-32	-12	-11	-20
Nov 27, 2023	-11	-30	-36	19
Oct 26, 2023	-36	-16	-14	-20
Sep 25, 2023	-14	-23	-44	9
Aug 24, 2023	-44	-32	-25	-12
Jul 27, 2023	-25	-2	-9	-23
Jun 26, 2023	-9	0	-10	-9
May 25, 2023	-10	10	5	-20
Apr 26, 2023	5	0	1	5
Mar 27, 2023	1	-6	2	7
Feb 23, 2023	2	-13	-23	15
Jan 26, 2023	-23	-5	11	-18
Dec 21, 2022	11	-23	-19	34
Nov 28, 2022	-19	-7	18	-12
Oct 27, 2022	18	-38	-20	56
Sep 23, 2022	-20	10	37	-30
Aug 25, 2022	37	-7	-4	44
Jul 26, 2022	-4	-9	-5	5
Jun 23, 2022	-5	-3	-1	-2
May 24, 2022	-1	-30	-35	29
Apr 27, 2022	-35	-3	9	-32
Mar 24, 2022	9	10	14	-1
Feb 24, 2022	14	25	28	-11
Jan 27, 2022	28	13	8	15
Dec 21, 2021	8	13	39	-5
Nov 25, 2021	39	34	30	5
Oct 26, 2021	30	13	11	17
Sep 24, 2021	11	35	60	-24
Aug 24, 2021	60	20	23	40
Jul 27, 2021	23	21	25	2
Jun 25, 2021	25	14	18	11
May 25, 2021	18	30	20	-12
Apr 27, 2021	20	-5	-45	25
Mar 25, 2021	-45	-37	-45	-8
Feb 23, 2021	-45	-38	-50	-7
Jan 26, 2021	-50	-28	-3	-22
Dec 21, 2020	-3	0	-25	-3
Nov 24, 2020	-25	-35	-23	10
Oct 27, 2020	-23	1	11	-24
Sep 24, 2020	11	-10	-6	21
Aug 25, 2020	-6	8	4	-14
Jul 28, 2020	4	-25	-37	29
Jun 25, 2020	-37	-34	-50	-3
May 26, 2020	-50	-50	-55
Apr 28, 2020	-55	-40	-3	-15
Mar 25, 2020	-3	-12	1	9
Feb 25, 2020	1	4	0	-3
Jan 28, 2020	0	3	0	-3
Dec 19, 2019	0	3	-3	-3
Nov 25, 2019	-3	-10	-10	7
Oct 28, 2019	-10	-20	-16	10
Sep 25, 2019	-16	-25	-49	9
Aug 22, 2019	-49	-11	-16	-38
Jul 25, 2019	-16	-10	-42	-6
Jun 25, 2019	-42	-10	-27	-32
May 24, 2019	-27	8	13	-35
Apr 25, 2019	13	0	-18	13
Mar 27, 2019	-18	5	0	-23
Feb 22, 2019	0	-6	0	6
Jan 25, 2019	0	2	-13	-2
Dec 20, 2018	-13	16	19	-29
Nov 27, 2018	19	10	5	9
Oct 30, 2018	5	27	23	-22
Sep 26, 2018	23	16	29	7
Aug 23, 2018	29	13	20	16
Jul 25, 2018	20	15	32	5
Jun 27, 2018	32	10	11	22
May 23, 2018	11	4	-2	7
Apr 26, 2018	-2	5	-8	-7
Mar 28, 2018	-8	11	8	-19
Feb 22, 2018	8	13	12	-5
Jan 25, 2018	12	12	20
Dec 20, 2017	20	20	26
Nov 23, 2017	26	5	-36	21
Oct 26, 2017	-36	15	42	-51
Sep 27, 2017	42	5	-10	37
Aug 24, 2017	-10	15	22	-25
Jun 27, 2017	12	2	2	10
May 23, 2017	2	10	38	-8
Apr 27, 2017	38	6	9	32
Mar 23, 2017	9	5	9	4
Feb 23, 2017	9	5	-8	4
Jan 26, 2017	-8	22	35	-30
Dec 20, 2016	35	20	26	15
Nov 25, 2016	26	12	21	14
Oct 27, 2016	21	-2	-8	23
Sep 27, 2016	-8	7	9	-15
Aug 25, 2016	9	-5	-14	14
Jul 27, 2016	-14	1	4	-15
Jun 28, 2016	4	-2	7	6
May 24, 2016	7	7	-13
Apr 27, 2016	-13	12	7	-25
Mar 24, 2016	7	15	10	-8
Feb 24, 2016	10	12	16	-2
Jan 28, 2016	16	18	19	-2
Dec 21, 2015	19	21	7	-2
Nov 24, 2015	7	25	19	-18
Oct 29, 2015	19		49
Sep 29, 2015	49	28	24	21
Aug 26, 2015	24	18	21	6
Jul 29, 2015	21	30	29	-9